IEA and OPEC cut oil forecasts as Hormuz stays shut
The IEA and OPEC both trimmed their oil forecasts on Wednesday, blaming the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Crude fell on Thursday after five days of gains.
Symbolic imageCrude fell on Thursday, ending a five-day run, after the IEA and OPEC each cut their forecasts and blamed the still-shut Strait of Hormuz. Talks over reopening the waterway remain stalled.
The Strait of Hormuz, the corridor through which a large share of Gulf crude normally reaches world markets, has been disrupted since the outbreak of the US-Iran war. Saudi Arabia responded in February by shifting most of its exports away from the Gulf to Red Sea terminals such as Yanbu, making the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb strait its principal outlet to Asian buyers. Houthi attacks on shipping have now put that route in question as well, leaving the Suez Canal and the far longer voyage around Africa as the remaining options. The result is a two-chokepoint squeeze on the world's largest crude exporter, with longer voyages, higher fuel and transit costs and limited pipeline capacity feeding directly into oil prices and inflation expectations.
The IEA and OPEC both trimmed their oil forecasts on Wednesday, blaming the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Crude fell on Thursday after five days of gains.
Iran plans to join the BRICS development bank while wartime layoffs mount. Oil rose again on Wednesday, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Crude held its gains on Tuesday, a day after prices surged as hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz faded again. Stock markets in New York and Mumbai lost ground.
Crude extended its gains on Monday and equities slipped after the weekend brought no breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has tempered hopes of a swift reopening.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 304.81 million barrels, its lowest since March 1983, leaving about 43 days of cover on Energy Department and Bank of America figures.
Oil futures moved lower on expectations of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the Wall Street Journal reported, while The National said prices stayed volatile as Houthi attacks renewed fears of a supply crunch. Comex gold ended the week 7.20% higher at $4,340.70, and Handelsblatt reports that the war with Iran is also cutting oil demand with long-term consequences.
Ukraine has completely stopped exporting agricultural products through the Black Sea after Russian strikes on Odesa, a route that carried about 85% of such exports before July, Agrarian Policy Minister Taras Vysotsky said. TASS reports 6,835 vehicles queued at the Polish border and a drone strike on the Turkish cargo ship MV Gulluk near Novorossiysk, while Bloomberg reports that Washington says Kyiv will avoid targeting tankers and a Black Sea oil site.
A US official said on Friday that Washington expects an Iran-Oman agreement to reopen commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within days. Whether Iran may charge passing ships remains unresolved.
Abu Dhabi's Adnoc said on Friday that missile and drone attacks have hit 15 of its vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, killing one crew member and wounding 20. Iranian crude exports from Kharg Island have been at a standstill under the renewed US blockade.
Saudi crude shipments to the United States have dropped to zero for the first time in 40 years, Bloomberg reported. US refiners were buying more than 600,000 barrels of Saudi oil a day earlier this year before turning to other suppliers.
A surge of attacks on ships, ports and export terminals in the Black Sea region is disrupting global supplies of grain and oil, Daily Sabah reported on Thursday. The report describes the area as the latest strategic pressure point for world commodity flows.
Brent swung back above $80 a barrel on Thursday and gold reached a seven-week high as traders priced in a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US stocks fell on doubts the deal would land.
Iran said on Wednesday its talks with Oman on reopening the Strait of Hormuz had reached their final stages. Reports on Friday say the draft would bar US and Israeli vessels and charge hostile states for passage.
Iraq's oil exports fell from 100 million barrels in February to around 32 million in May and June, according to Oil Ministry figures shown to The National and cited by the Jerusalem Post on Wednesday. Baghdad is struggling to cover public sector salaries as the Strait of Hormuz crisis deepens.
Yemen's Houthis said on Wednesday they hit two Saudi oil tankers, the Wafa off Yanbu and the Daisy in the Gulf of Aden. Oil prices rebounded, and Saudi Arabia has not commented on the claims.
Iran announced on Wednesday that it had agreed with Oman on the coordinates of a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg reports oil held a three-day drop on Thursday.
Thousands of civilian crew members remain stranded on ships at risk of attack by Iran in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and on one vessel sailors have been held by the Iranian navy for more than three months, the New York Times reported on Tuesday. CENTCOM said US forces have redirected 45 vessels and boarded two since the blockade of Iran resumed, according to TASS.
Saudi Aramco said on Tuesday that second-quarter net profit rose 44% to about $33bn, helped by higher oil prices during the US-Iran war, while BP more than doubled its quarterly profit to more than $5bn. The Guardian reported that eight of the biggest oil companies made more than $90bn in three months, reviving demands that they pay for environmental damage.
Wall Street closed at record highs on Tuesday after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be close. Brent crude fell below $80 for the first time in nearly a month.
US, Qatari and Omani officials say a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come within days, with draft language circulating. The waterway was still shut to shipping on Tuesday, day 158 of the US-Iran war.
Crude prices dropped and stock markets rallied on Monday after US President Donald Trump cancelled planned strikes on Iran and said talks would resume. Tehran denied his account of a Monday start.
US Central Command says 35 commercial ships have been rerouted at the blockaded Strait of Hormuz as of Sunday. Iran's Foreign Ministry says a route agreement with Oman alone will not reopen the waterway.
Brent crude slipped below $82 a barrel late on Sunday, its lowest since mid-July, after Trump held off on an attack on Iran. Gold firmed as US and British outlets reported hopes of a US-Iran deal.
Seven OPEC+ states agreed on Sunday to lift oil production by 188,000 barrels per day in September, the sixth monthly increase in a row. The step finishes unwinding the voluntary cuts the group agreed in 2023.
Iran's foreign minister said on Sunday that talks with Oman on a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz are in their final stages. The US naval blockade of Iran, resumed in mid-July, is still in force.
Crude ended July about 24 percent higher after US-Iran fighting disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg reports that Exxon and Chevron expect fuel prices to stay high because refining flows are knocked out.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported two incidents involving tankers off Oman on Saturday. One vessel was left inoperative after a projectile struck its engine room.
Saudi Arabia held the first planning session on Thursday for a proposed maritime defence coalition to secure the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden, and Bloomberg reported that Saudi ships are now avoiding the chokepoint and sailing around Africa. Tehran Times reported that the Ansarullah leader spoke to hundreds of thousands in Sana'a's Sab'een Square on Friday as Yemen locked in its naval blockade, while The National linked a growing Houthi presence in Iraq to an attack on the kingdom.
Ukraine's military struck a refinery in Volgograd and set warehouses of the online retailer Wildberries on fire, part of a campaign increasingly aimed at Russian oil infrastructure and logistics centres, FAZ reported; the rival retailer Ozon had to evacuate a warehouse. Wildberries founder and CEO Tatyana Kim addressed sellers in a video on Friday after two weeks of strikes, said foreign entrepreneurs had lost billions, called the attacks force majeure and described them as terrorist attacks.
Crude rose sharply on Friday as fighting between the United States and Iran disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI near $85 and Brent above $88 a barrel. Bloomberg reports oil is heading for a monthly gain of about 21 percent.
US and Israeli forces could open a bombing campaign against Iranian power plants and refineries as early as this weekend, CBS News reported on Friday. Both governments are also weighing a land blockade of Iran involving its neighbours.
Crude prices wobbled as the conflict between the United States and Iran veered toward a wider war, and bond yields rose on inflation concerns. US refiners are booking billions in profits from the global fuel supply crunch, Bloomberg reports.
Saudi Arabia's economy contracted at its steepest rate since 2020 as the renewed war with Iran disrupted oil exports, according to figures reported on Thursday. The kingdom's revenues depend heavily on the shipments now affected by the conflict.
Pakistan secured Iranian agreement for the tanker Al Areesh, idle in the Persian Gulf since early July after loading at Qatar's Ras Laffan terminal, to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday morning, TASS reported. Qatar sent its first LNG cargo through the waterway since one of its tankers was attacked more than three weeks ago, and CENTCOM says it has redirected 24 ships since Iran's blockade began.
Saudi Arabia announced on Thursday a multinational maritime defence coalition, joined by dozens of states including Egypt and Turkey, to protect shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait against Houthi attacks. Yemeni sources told The Guardian that Riyadh is at the same time concentrating forces for a possible major offensive by sea and possibly by land against the Houthis in central Yemen.
Ukrainian drones struck Rosneft's Ryazan refinery on Wednesday, forcing one of Russia's largest plants offline for what sources told Reuters will be about two weeks. Overnight into Thursday drones burned three more Wildberries warehouses, one of them 1,400 kilometres from the border, and hit two tankers at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near Novorossiysk. Oil prices rose after the Black Sea attacks, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.
A drone strike set two vessels alight at Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta on Wednesday, the first such attack on Egyptian soil since the US-Iran war began in February. Cairo said an initial investigation pointed to an unidentified drone and that no group had claimed responsibility. The port sits near the Suez Canal, and the strike has focused attention on how exposed the waterway's shipping is as the war pulls in Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
A US-Saudi consortium is advancing plans for an oil refinery worth $5 billion located outside the Strait of Hormuz, The National reports. Building permanent capacity beyond the chokepoint points to expectations of lasting risk for Gulf export routes.
The United States on Wednesday sanctioned mainland Chinese and Hong Kong shipping companies that it accuses of operating vessels carrying Iranian oil to China, the South China Morning Post reports. The step extends Washington's economic pressure in the Iran war into China's energy supply chain.
Houthi forces struck several Saudi vessels in the Bab al-Mandab strait, which Le Monde reports has become even more important since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and Breitbart reports the group is considering charging shipping "fees" for safe passage. Saudi Arabia is seeking international partners for a coalition to protect commercial shipping in the Red Sea, according to two people familiar with the deliberations cited by Daily Sabah, as attacks on energy tankers push oil prices higher.
Brent crude rose by roughly 8 percent to about $91 a barrel on Wednesday after Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired ballistic missiles at US forces in Jordan and US and Saudi forces struck Iran-aligned groups in eastern Iraq. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains far below normal, and US crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels last week. Japan and other Asian buyers are turning to Canadian crude shipped through the Trans Mountain pipeline to cut their Gulf exposure.
TASS, citing the analyst Sergey Kuyun, reported that Ukrainian filling stations are running dry, and said a blockade of Ukraine's ports together with sharply higher truck diesel prices is deepening an export crisis. Moldovan Prime Minister Vasile Tofan said Ukrainian strikes on the Russian port of Novorossiysk triggered a diesel shortage in Moldova, which imports significant volumes of the fuel via the Danube.
The Houthis said they fired ballistic missiles at the Saudi oil tanker NCC Ghazal in the Red Sea, and their spokesman Yahya Sarea said the vessel was forced to change course, part of the group's declared naval blockade of Saudi shipping. Iran's ambassador to Moscow, Kazem Jalali, said the Houthis will decide for themselves, at the appropriate time, whether to strike US bases alongside Iran.
Brent crude dropped more than 6 percent on Tuesday to about $83 a barrel as negotiations between Washington and Tehran gained traction, extending a retreat of roughly 16 percent from last week's peak above $100. At the same time Saudi Aramco suspended its 400,000 barrel-a-day Jizan refinery until mid-August after a Houthi attack, and the Red Sea route Riyadh uses to bypass the Strait of Hormuz remains under threat.
Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US military base in Jordan on Tuesday, breaking a pause of several days in the exchange with Washington; CENTCOM says its forces intercepted them. A day later US and Saudi fighter aircraft struck Iran-aligned logistics and weapons sites across eastern Iraq, after Saudi air defences shot down drones aimed at oil facilities. The Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces say eight of their members were killed.
The Bank of England is expected to leave interest rates unchanged despite the jump in oil prices, while signalling a possible move if the war continues, according to the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal. The Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened policy on Monday for the second time in three months, citing volatile global energy markets and elevated inflation risks linked to the US war against Iran, the South China Morning Post reports.
Reuters and The Telegraph report that Europe faces a long, cold winter as gas stockpiles and fuel buffers shrink. The New York Times reports that developing Asian economies, affected by Middle East supply shocks linked to the Iran war, are working to scale back their reliance on imported fuels including liquefied natural gas.
Ukrainian drones carried out what the governor of Russia's Udmurt Republic called the most massive attack on the region to date on July 27, 2026, one of several strikes President Volodymyr Zelensky said were aimed at Russian oil facilities. In the days before, drones hit Wildberries logistics centers in St. Petersburg, the Leningrad region and Crimea, and attacks on tankers at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near Novorossiysk halted loadings and more than halved Kazakhstan's daily oil output before shipments resumed. Moscow has extended its gasoline export ban to the end of 2026 as fuel and power shortages spread across occupied Crimea.
Saudi Arabia says it shot down drones launched from Iraqi territory at oil facilities in its Eastern Province and at Riyadh, blaming Iran-backed militias and reserving the right to respond. Yemen's Houthis separately claimed drone strikes on the pipeline infrastructure carrying crude from eastern Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Shipping data show traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait has fallen by 56 percent since the Houthis declared an embargo on Saudi-linked vessels on July 20.
Brent crude dropped by as much as 9 percent to below $88 a barrel on Monday, 27 July 2026, after the United States and Iran halted their attacks and signalled that talks could resume. WTI fell more than 7 percent at its low, UK government bond yields eased and Asian trading turned mixed to firmer. Analysts warned that similar pauses have failed before and that physical oil flows through Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab remain disrupted.
Kazakhstan's oil exports were halted after drone attacks disrupted supplies, Al Jazeera reports, in a spillover from the war between Russia and Ukraine. The interruption poses risks to the Kazakh economy and to energy markets.
Iranian and Omani officials concluded two days of high-level talks in Tehran on safeguarding maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran described as productive, according to Tehran Times and the South China Morning Post. Iran said the progress followed a halt in US air strikes, while Revolutionary Guard vessels stopped ships in the waterway.
After the Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi shipping and struck two tankers in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia has loaded no crude for export through the Bab al-Mandeb strait from its west coast, according to Kpler data cited by The National. Cargoes for Asian buyers are instead moving through the Suez Canal, a route that adds weeks and cost. The rebels also claim to have hit Aramco sites at Jizan and Yanbu, a claim neither the Saudi government nor Aramco has confirmed.
Crude oil moved in both directions within days, slumping roughly 5% after Washington and Tehran halted strikes and spiking back toward $100 a barrel as escalation fears returned. Gold rose as the pause curbed inflation risk, Asian equities and currencies firmed on softer US inflation data, and bond markets repriced war risk. Financial outlets report the pause has calmed markets without removing the underlying supply risk in the Gulf and the Red Sea.
Dozens of ships are still crossing the Red Sea despite the Houthi blockade, but disruption is scattered and uncertainty over the passage is growing by the hour. At the same time, tanker crossings through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen to their lowest level in two months as the Iran war repeatedly interrupts commercial shipping. Companies and port operators are responding not by rerouting cargo but by rebuilding where goods are made, stored and moved.
Brent crude has closed above $100 a barrel for the first time since late May, with the Strait of Hormuz blocked by the US-Iran war and the Red Sea disrupted by Houthi attacks on Saudi oil vessels. In the same week the United States began enforcing duties of 10% to 12.5% on more than 60 economies, its third tariff regime in under a year. Analysts warn that the two shocks reinforce each other instead of cancelling out, compounding inflation and growth risks worldwide.
Yemen's Houthi movement said on Saturday it had fired missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, calling it retaliation for Saudi-led coalition airstrikes on Hodeidah the night before. Saudi air defences intercepted two ballistic missiles from Yemen and emergency alerts were issued in both cities, but Riyadh has not confirmed any damage. The exchange follows a Houthi declaration of a naval blockade of the kingdom and comes as the Red Sea becomes a second disrupted shipping corridor alongside the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude closed above $100 a barrel on 23 July for the first time since late May, after Houthi attacks on two Saudi oil vessels in the Red Sea added a second disrupted chokepoint to the already blocked Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia is rerouting exports through the Suez Canal, a detour that roughly doubles fuel costs per voyage to Asia. Asian equities fell after a US sell-off, and analysts warn of a renewed inflation impulse.