
Wildfires in France and Spain force hundreds of thousands from their homes
Wildfires force mass evacuations in France and Spain, Madrid declares emergency
The Situation · Edition 3
The Middle East dominated the day's news in both directions at once. Israel's political-security cabinet approved the entry of the Board of Peace's International Stabilization Force into parts of Gaza outside Israeli military control, an initial contingent reported at around 200 personnel from countries including Morocco and Uganda, with Israel keeping a veto over participants; the decision landed a day before Prime Minister Netanyahu left for Washington, where he meets President Trump on Tuesday and where, Bloomberg reports, he intends to press for continued vigilance over Iran's nuclear programme.
Against that, Iran's military warned it would widen the war if Washington resumed strikes, President Pezeshkian called US attacks on civilian infrastructure war crimes, and Iran's supreme leader tied any agreement with Washington to an end to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a Ukrainian strike on a ship in the Caspian Sea killed a sailor and 'cannot go unanswered'. The Houthi maritime embargo on Saudi shipping has left Saudi Arabia loading no crude for export through Bab al-Mandeb from its west coast, according to Kpler data cited by The National, with Asian cargoes rerouted through Suez at weeks of added time and cost; rebel claims of hits on Aramco sites at Jizan and Yanbu remain unconfirmed by the Saudi government or the company.
Crude has swung accordingly, slumping roughly 5% after the US-Iran strike pause and spiking back toward $100 a barrel as escalation fears returned. In Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky became the first foreign leader received by new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who took office on 20 July and will hand Kyiv the intellectual property behind the 'Stone Cloak' jammer, before his own Washington meeting on Tuesday; Russian ballistic missiles killed people in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, Handelsblatt reported Odessa's ports effectively paralysed, and Zelensky said Russia has asked North Korea for a further 30,000 troops, a figure that comes from him alone.
Elsewhere the war spilled outward: Romania downed a third Russian drone and summoned Moscow's ambassador, drone attacks halted Kazakh oil exports, and in Berlin police shot dead the 21-year-old suspect in a van attack on the Christopher Street Day crowd that killed one person and injured at least 16, with federal prosecutors treating it as Islamist terrorism.
The economic and technological picture was shaped by China and by artificial intelligence. DRAM maker ChangXin Memory Technologies closed up 466% on its Shanghai debut after raising 66.5 billion yuan, Asia's largest fundraising this year, valuing it at 3.28 trillion yuan and briefly, per Nikkei Asia, lifting it above Intel; Moonshot AI published the weights of Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter model that company-run benchmarks place ahead of the strongest closed models from Anthropic and OpenAI, and which Washington accuses Moonshot of building off Anthropic's technology, a charge Beijing calls groundless.
The Wall Street Journal reports Nvidia in talks to guarantee up to $250 billion in OpenAI data-centre financing, unconfirmed by either company, even as Bloomberg describes investors in revolt over the scale of AI capital spending. The US Federal Reserve opens its second meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh on Tuesday with markets split between a fifth hold at 3.50%–3.75% and a hike, given 3.5% inflation and oil back above $100, while Washington's new Section 301 duties of 10% to 12.5% now cover 99.4% of US imports and face court challenge; Switzerland rejects the forced-labour accusations behind its levy.
Disasters and disease ran alongside: more than 300,000 people have been driven from their homes by wildfires around Bordeaux and south-west of Madrid, in what officials call France's largest evacuation since the Second World War and what FAZ calls Spain's largest fire in recent history; Typhoon Noul forced over 340,000 evacuations in southern China; the African Development Bank put the cost of an approaching 'super' El Niño at $10 billion to $20 billion; and Congo's Ebola outbreak, caused by the Bundibugyo strain for which no approved vaccine exists, has reached 3,200 confirmed cases and at least 1,405 deaths, roughly 1,000 cases added in ten days.
In India, Modi accepted Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan's resignation on 25 July, ending a month of youth protests over a leaked medical entrance exam in what outlets describe as his government's first major climbdown since 2014.
Against that, Iran's military warned it would widen the war if Washington resumed strikes, President Pezeshkian called US attacks on civilian infrastructure war crimes, and Iran's supreme leader tied any agreement with Washington to an end to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a Ukrainian strike on a ship in the Caspian Sea killed a sailor and 'cannot go unanswered'. The Houthi maritime embargo on Saudi shipping has left Saudi Arabia loading no crude for export through Bab al-Mandeb from its west coast, according to Kpler data cited by The National, with Asian cargoes rerouted through Suez at weeks of added time and cost; rebel claims of hits on Aramco sites at Jizan and Yanbu remain unconfirmed by the Saudi government or the company.
Crude has swung accordingly, slumping roughly 5% after the US-Iran strike pause and spiking back toward $100 a barrel as escalation fears returned. In Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky became the first foreign leader received by new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who took office on 20 July and will hand Kyiv the intellectual property behind the 'Stone Cloak' jammer, before his own Washington meeting on Tuesday; Russian ballistic missiles killed people in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, Handelsblatt reported Odessa's ports effectively paralysed, and Zelensky said Russia has asked North Korea for a further 30,000 troops, a figure that comes from him alone.
Elsewhere the war spilled outward: Romania downed a third Russian drone and summoned Moscow's ambassador, drone attacks halted Kazakh oil exports, and in Berlin police shot dead the 21-year-old suspect in a van attack on the Christopher Street Day crowd that killed one person and injured at least 16, with federal prosecutors treating it as Islamist terrorism.
The economic and technological picture was shaped by China and by artificial intelligence. DRAM maker ChangXin Memory Technologies closed up 466% on its Shanghai debut after raising 66.5 billion yuan, Asia's largest fundraising this year, valuing it at 3.28 trillion yuan and briefly, per Nikkei Asia, lifting it above Intel; Moonshot AI published the weights of Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter model that company-run benchmarks place ahead of the strongest closed models from Anthropic and OpenAI, and which Washington accuses Moonshot of building off Anthropic's technology, a charge Beijing calls groundless.
The Wall Street Journal reports Nvidia in talks to guarantee up to $250 billion in OpenAI data-centre financing, unconfirmed by either company, even as Bloomberg describes investors in revolt over the scale of AI capital spending. The US Federal Reserve opens its second meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh on Tuesday with markets split between a fifth hold at 3.50%–3.75% and a hike, given 3.5% inflation and oil back above $100, while Washington's new Section 301 duties of 10% to 12.5% now cover 99.4% of US imports and face court challenge; Switzerland rejects the forced-labour accusations behind its levy.
Disasters and disease ran alongside: more than 300,000 people have been driven from their homes by wildfires around Bordeaux and south-west of Madrid, in what officials call France's largest evacuation since the Second World War and what FAZ calls Spain's largest fire in recent history; Typhoon Noul forced over 340,000 evacuations in southern China; the African Development Bank put the cost of an approaching 'super' El Niño at $10 billion to $20 billion; and Congo's Ebola outbreak, caused by the Bundibugyo strain for which no approved vaccine exists, has reached 3,200 confirmed cases and at least 1,405 deaths, roughly 1,000 cases added in ten days.
In India, Modi accepted Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan's resignation on 25 July, ending a month of youth protests over a leaked medical entrance exam in what outlets describe as his government's first major climbdown since 2014.
Oil tops $100 as Iran war and Hormuz/Red Sea disruption reroute crudeTrump weighs major Iran escalation as intelligence sees new supreme leader open to the bombTrump to host Netanyahu and Zelensky at the White HouseRussian missiles kill 15 in Kyiv drone fair strike and Sloviansk bombing

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited a British naval base on Monday as the first foreign leader received by new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who took office on 20 July. London announced it would hand Kyiv the intellectual property behind its "Stone Cloak" electronic jammer so Ukraine can produce it at scale. The visit precedes a meeting between Zelensky and US President Donald Trump in Washington on Tuesday, while the Kremlin said it was too early to comment on reported US-Ukrainian talks about an air ceasefire.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi accepted the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan on 25 July, meeting the central demand of a month-long, youth-led protest movement that formed after the leak of a national medical entrance exam. The movement, which called itself the Cockroach Janta Party, announced the end of its campaign after the government conceded. European and US outlets describe the retreat as the first major climbdown by Modi's government since it took power in 2014.
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After the Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi shipping and struck two tankers in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia has loaded no crude for export through the Bab al-Mandeb strait from its west coast, according to Kpler data cited by The National. Cargoes for Asian buyers are instead moving through the Suez Canal, a route that adds weeks and cost. The rebels also claim to have hit Aramco sites at Jizan and Yanbu, a claim neither the Saudi government nor Aramco has confirmed.
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Crude oil moved in both directions within days, slumping roughly 5% after Washington and Tehran halted strikes and spiking back toward $100 a barrel as escalation fears returned. Gold rose as the pause curbed inflation risk, Asian equities and currencies firmed on softer US inflation data, and bond markets repriced war risk. Financial outlets report the pause has calmed markets without removing the underlying supply risk in the Gulf and the Red Sea.
Oil tops $100 as Iran war and Hormuz/Red Sea disruption reroute crude

Washington's new Section 301 duties of 10% to 12.5%, imposed on some 60 countries over allegedly weak enforcement of forced-labour bans, are now in force and cover 99.4% of US imports according to the US Trade Representative. Switzerland has rejected the forced-labour accusations used to justify its levy, while the United States is pressing Mexico to copy its steel tariff wall aimed at China. The measures are being challenged in US courts, months after the Supreme Court struck down an earlier round of tariffs.
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The US Federal Reserve begins its second policy meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh on Tuesday, with a decision due Wednesday at 2 p.m. in Washington. Most investors expect rates to stay at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, but inflation at 3.5% and oil back above $100 a barrel have put a rate increase back into the debate. Bond traders are positioning for the possibility of a hike even as the White House keeps demanding cuts.
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The African Development Bank's top climate expert has estimated that an approaching 'super' El Niño could cause $10 billion to $20 billion in damage across African economies and trigger mass migration from the hardest-hit areas. Heavily affected countries would lose an average of one to two per cent of GDP, on top of risks to food and water security, government finances and banking sectors. It is the first figure of its kind published by a major multilateral development bank in connection with El Niño.
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The Wall Street Journal reports that chipmaker Nvidia is in talks with OpenAI to guarantee up to $250 billion in financing for a data-centre project. Bloomberg and Reuters picked up the report without independent confirmation, and neither company has publicly commented in the available material. Separately, the Journal reports that Nvidia will invest $1 billion in an artificial-intelligence project run by the South Korean internet group Naver.
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