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The Situation · Edition 51

Sunday, 1 November 2026

← 31 OctToday →

Iran set the tone on Sunday's edition. Iran's supreme leader Khamenei told commanders that any new US or Israeli attack will meet an immediate response without geographic limits, while Qatari mediators try to avert US strikes. The Revolutionary Guards said four tankers caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, and Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran could reopen the strait within two days if its conditions are met.

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On Saturday, 31 October, hundreds of residents of Russian-held Oleshky reached Ukraine via Belarus under a local truce, yet the war went on elsewhere: Russia hit Ukraine's power grid, and Russian refineries were struck. The G20 foreign ministers' meeting in Atlanta ended without consensus as Ukraine, Iran and tariffs divided delegates, and some ministers refused a photo with Lavrov. Rubio said he discussed a possible Putin-Trump meeting on the APEC sidelines with Lavrov, then hosted a Quad meeting that criticised economic coercion.

US tech stocks fell again on Friday on doubts over AI spending. OpenAI's funding goal was reportedly lowered by $10bn.

Less noticed: the FBI attributes the record $6.3bn Binance theft to North Korea's TraderTraitor unit, and Binance says it has replaced 90% of the stolen assets. Tomorrow, watch whether Qatar's mediation holds and whether Iran's reopening offer turns into action.

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