The Situation · Edition 4
Tuesday, 28 July 2026
The pause in fighting between the United States and Iran held for a third day on Monday, with Qatar and Pakistan leading efforts to restart ceasefire talks. President Donald Trump called the contacts "very deep talks" but said he would return to "very strong military action" if they fail quickly, while Tehran denied negotiating directly with Washington and said the United States will not decide the timing of war or peace for Iran. Markets read the pause as relief: Brent crude fell by as much as 9 percent to below $88 a barrel and WTI dropped more than 7 percent at its low, though analysts cautioned that earlier pauses have collapsed and that flows through Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab remain disrupted.
Benjamin Netanyahu flew to Washington for a White House meeting on Tuesday, his first since the war with Iran began on 28 February, and Israeli broadcaster Channel 13 reported he told his cabinet he intends to refuse American demands for troop withdrawals from Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.
The wider region is still absorbing the war. Saudi Arabia says it shot down drones launched from Iraqi territory at oil facilities in its Eastern Province and at Riyadh, blaming Iran-backed militias, while Yemen's Houthis claimed strikes on the pipeline carrying crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu; shipping data show traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait has fallen 56 percent since the Houthi embargo on Saudi-linked vessels was declared on 20 July. Israeli forces raided at least 20 towns and villages in the occupied West Bank and a United Nations facility, according to Tehran Times, and Israel has separately approved the deployment of an international stabilisation force in Gaza.
The Pentagon, which began publishing casualty figures on a dedicated webpage on 7 July, has listed four service members killed during the ceasefire period separately from 14 further Epic Fury casualties since February; the New York Times, cited by TASS, puts injuries since February at more than 600.
In Ukraine the war is widening rather than winding down. Russian missiles and drones killed at least six people on Sunday including a nine-year-old girl in a Chernihiv supermarket, while a Ukrainian drone attack on Rostov-on-Don left five dead including a child according to the regional governor, with each capital calling the other's strikes terror. Ukrainian drones struck an oil site in Udmurtia in what the region's governor called the most massive attack there to date, and a strike on shipping in the Caspian Sea killed an Iranian sailor, prompting Tehran to summon Kyiv's chargé d'affaires and warn that the attack "cannot go unanswered".
Volodymyr Zelensky was the first foreign leader received by Britain's new prime minister Andy Burnham before travelling to the White House, where a US official quoted by CNN said it is time to end the war, even as the Trump administration told Congress that $400m in approved assistance will not be fully delivered before fiscal 2029. Vladimir Putin raised Russia's authorised army strength to 2,426,130 personnel, the sixth such expansion according to Meduza, and the South China Morning Post reports unconfirmed claims that North Korea is preparing to send 30,000 more troops.
Southern Europe is burning. Wildfires in Spain, France and now Portugal have displaced roughly 375,000 people according to The Guardian and Koha, with the largest fire in Spanish records covering 77,000 hectares and the Gironde blaze uncontained after five nights within a few dozen kilometres of Bordeaux. Forecasters expect a fourth heat wave since May to reach France from Tuesday with temperatures up to 40 degrees, while Reuters and The Telegraph report Europe entering winter with shrinking gas and fuel buffers. In Berlin, a man drove a van into the Christopher Street Day parade in the Tiergarten on Saturday evening and attacked people with knives, killing a woman and injuring 29 before being shot dead; the federal prosecutor's office has taken over the case.
Central banks and technology dominate the economic picture. The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week for its first decision under new chairman Kevin Warsh, who has said the Fed has "no tolerance" for elevated inflation, with derivatives markets split between a hold and a hike; the Bank of England is expected to hold, and Singapore tightened for the second time in three months. In Shanghai, memory chipmaker CXMT closed its trading debut up 466 percent, becoming by market value the most valuable company listed on a mainland exchange, while Apple overtook Nvidia as the world's most valuable public company amid concern over AI costs.
Nvidia is reported by the Wall Street Journal to be negotiating roughly $250bn in funding guarantees for an OpenAI data centre in Piketon, Ohio, and has formed an Open Secure AI Alliance as the dispute over open-weight models widens. Elsewhere the news was quieter but grim: Uganda began emergency food distribution in Karamoja after 19 hunger deaths, Ebola responders in the Democratic Republic of the Congo struck over unpaid bonuses as recorded cases passed 3,000, and Johnson & Johnson agreed to pay $5.5bn to settle nearly 70,000 talc cancer claims it continues to deny.
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Benjamin Netanyahu flew to Washington for a White House meeting on Tuesday, his first since the war with Iran began on 28 February, and Israeli broadcaster Channel 13 reported he told his cabinet he intends to refuse American demands for troop withdrawals from Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.
The wider region is still absorbing the war. Saudi Arabia says it shot down drones launched from Iraqi territory at oil facilities in its Eastern Province and at Riyadh, blaming Iran-backed militias, while Yemen's Houthis claimed strikes on the pipeline carrying crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu; shipping data show traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait has fallen 56 percent since the Houthi embargo on Saudi-linked vessels was declared on 20 July. Israeli forces raided at least 20 towns and villages in the occupied West Bank and a United Nations facility, according to Tehran Times, and Israel has separately approved the deployment of an international stabilisation force in Gaza.
The Pentagon, which began publishing casualty figures on a dedicated webpage on 7 July, has listed four service members killed during the ceasefire period separately from 14 further Epic Fury casualties since February; the New York Times, cited by TASS, puts injuries since February at more than 600.
In Ukraine the war is widening rather than winding down. Russian missiles and drones killed at least six people on Sunday including a nine-year-old girl in a Chernihiv supermarket, while a Ukrainian drone attack on Rostov-on-Don left five dead including a child according to the regional governor, with each capital calling the other's strikes terror. Ukrainian drones struck an oil site in Udmurtia in what the region's governor called the most massive attack there to date, and a strike on shipping in the Caspian Sea killed an Iranian sailor, prompting Tehran to summon Kyiv's chargé d'affaires and warn that the attack "cannot go unanswered".
Volodymyr Zelensky was the first foreign leader received by Britain's new prime minister Andy Burnham before travelling to the White House, where a US official quoted by CNN said it is time to end the war, even as the Trump administration told Congress that $400m in approved assistance will not be fully delivered before fiscal 2029. Vladimir Putin raised Russia's authorised army strength to 2,426,130 personnel, the sixth such expansion according to Meduza, and the South China Morning Post reports unconfirmed claims that North Korea is preparing to send 30,000 more troops.
Southern Europe is burning. Wildfires in Spain, France and now Portugal have displaced roughly 375,000 people according to The Guardian and Koha, with the largest fire in Spanish records covering 77,000 hectares and the Gironde blaze uncontained after five nights within a few dozen kilometres of Bordeaux. Forecasters expect a fourth heat wave since May to reach France from Tuesday with temperatures up to 40 degrees, while Reuters and The Telegraph report Europe entering winter with shrinking gas and fuel buffers. In Berlin, a man drove a van into the Christopher Street Day parade in the Tiergarten on Saturday evening and attacked people with knives, killing a woman and injuring 29 before being shot dead; the federal prosecutor's office has taken over the case.
Central banks and technology dominate the economic picture. The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week for its first decision under new chairman Kevin Warsh, who has said the Fed has "no tolerance" for elevated inflation, with derivatives markets split between a hold and a hike; the Bank of England is expected to hold, and Singapore tightened for the second time in three months. In Shanghai, memory chipmaker CXMT closed its trading debut up 466 percent, becoming by market value the most valuable company listed on a mainland exchange, while Apple overtook Nvidia as the world's most valuable public company amid concern over AI costs.
Nvidia is reported by the Wall Street Journal to be negotiating roughly $250bn in funding guarantees for an OpenAI data centre in Piketon, Ohio, and has formed an Open Secure AI Alliance as the dispute over open-weight models widens. Elsewhere the news was quieter but grim: Uganda began emergency food distribution in Karamoja after 19 hunger deaths, Ebola responders in the Democratic Republic of the Congo struck over unpaid bonuses as recorded cases passed 3,000, and Johnson & Johnson agreed to pay $5.5bn to settle nearly 70,000 talc cancer claims it continues to deny.
Oil tops $100 as Iran war and Hormuz/Red Sea disruption reroute crudeTrump weighs major Iran escalation as intelligence sees new supreme leader open to the bombTrump to host Netanyahu and Zelensky at the White HouseRussian missiles kill 15 in Kyiv drone fair strike and Sloviansk bombing
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Geopolitics · 5

Netanyahu in Washington as US presses for Israeli pullbacks in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria
Israel's prime minister flew to Washington on Monday for a White House meeting with Donald Trump on Tuesday, his first since the war against Iran began on 28 February. Israeli broadcaster Channel 13 reported that he told his cabinet the United States wants Israeli troops withdrawn from Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, and that he intends to refuse. Trump is receiving Volodymyr Zelensky separately the same day, casting himself as a mediator in both wars.

Iran threatens response after Ukrainian strike on Caspian Sea cargo ship kills sailor
A Ukrainian long-range drone strike on shipping in the Caspian Sea over the weekend of 25 July caused an explosion aboard an Iranian merchant vessel, killing one sailor and injuring others. Kyiv says it hit ships carrying military cargo between Iran and Russia; Tehran says the vessel was purely civilian and has told the EU and Moscow the attack "cannot go unanswered". Iran has summoned Ukraine's chargé d'affaires, while Russian and Iranian ministries coordinate their response.
Ukraine strikes Iranian ship carrying drone parts, Tehran vows response

Ukrainian drone strikes hit Udmurtia oil site, Crimea utilities and Kazakh export route
Ukrainian drones carried out what the governor of Russia's Udmurt Republic called the most massive attack on the region to date on July 27, 2026, one of several strikes President Volodymyr Zelensky said were aimed at Russian oil facilities. In the days before, drones hit Wildberries logistics centers in St. Petersburg, the Leningrad region and Crimea, and attacks on tankers at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near Novorossiysk halted loadings and more than halved Kazakhstan's daily oil output before shipments resumed. Moscow has extended its gasoline export ban to the end of 2026 as fuel and power shortages spread across occupied Crimea.
Oil tops $100 as Iran war and Hormuz/Red Sea disruption reroute crude

Strikes on both sides of the front kill civilians in Chernihiv and Rostov-on-Don
Ukrainian officials said Russian missiles and drones killed at least six people on Sunday, among them a nine-year-old girl in a supermarket in Chernihiv. In the same night a Ukrainian drone attack hit residential districts of Rostov-on-Don, where the regional governor first reported a married couple killed and later raised the toll to five, including a child. Both capitals deny targeting civilians, and both describe the other side's strikes as terror.

Zelensky visits new UK prime minister before White House talks as US aid timeline stretches to 2029
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was the first foreign leader received by Britain's new prime minister Andy Burnham, who used the naval base meeting on 27 July to harden his language toward Moscow and to promise Kyiv the rights to a British electronic warfare system. A day later Zelensky is due at the White House, where a US official quoted by CNN says it is time to end the war. In the background, the Trump administration has told Congress that $400m in approved assistance will not be fully delivered before fiscal 2029, while Kazakhstan's president publicly urged Vladimir Putin to freeze the conflict.
Economy · 1

Fed's new chairman faces first rate decision as markets split on a hike
The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week for the first policy decision under new chairman Kevin Warsh, who has said the Federal Reserve has "no tolerance" for elevated inflation. Derivatives markets are divided, pricing a minority chance of an interest-rate increase and a majority chance that rates stay where they are. The dollar, the equity rally and a run of Big Tech earnings are all being read against the outcome.
US 10-year yield hits second-term high as war and tariffs strain the economy
Technology · 2

CXMT shares jump about 470% on Shanghai trading debut
Chinese memory chipmaker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) began trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market on Monday and closed its first session up 466%, after rising roughly 470% during the day. The listing was mainland China's largest initial public offering in years and left CXMT, by market value, the most valuable company listed on a mainland exchange. The debut fed into an already tense global market for memory chips and moved semiconductor shares elsewhere.

Nvidia forms Open Secure AI Alliance as open-weight dispute widens
Nvidia has created an Open Secure AI Alliance with a cyber security focus to defend openly downloadable AI models, and Abu Dhabi's G42 said on Monday it would join a membership of at least 38 companies. Days earlier, a letter signed by 25 large firms, among them Microsoft and IBM, endorsed open-weight models. At the same time the Chinese start-up Moonshot set out licence conditions for its Kimi K3 model, while investors and policymakers remain split over how safe freely usable systems are.
Middle East · 6
- Israeli raids across West Bank towns as UN criticises settlement expansion
- Israel approves entry of international stabilisation force into Gaza
- Hamas completes leadership vote
- Trump backs possible F-35 sale to Turkey despite Israeli objections
- Turkey to present 'Terror-Free Türkiye' legal framework before recess
- Pentagon data show US casualties in the Iran campaign
Europe · 6
- Attacker kills one and injures dozens at Berlin Pride parade
- Putin raises authorised army strength to 2.4 million
- Analyst sees Russian forces close to a breakthrough in Donbas
- Romania expels Russian diplomat after shooting down three drones
- Moscow promises response to EU sanctions as Greek shipping carve-out prompts rethink
- Fedorov's dismissal strains Ukraine's political leadership
Asia · 7
- Monitor reports sharp rise in Myanmar military attacks on civilians
- North Korea reportedly preparing to send 30,000 more troops to Russia
- China threatens countermeasures over planned US sanctions on AI firms
- China adds EU entities to its export control list
- Indonesia's central bank governor resigns unexpectedly
- India's education minister resigns after youth protests
- Kim Yo Jong calls North Korea's nuclear status irreversible
North America · 7
- Trump takes mail ballot restrictions to the Supreme Court and calls for ending the filibuster
- Johnson & Johnson to pay $5.5bn to settle talc cancer claims
- Record AI lobbying spending and Meta's secret Louisiana data centre deal
- Apple regains title of most valuable public company from Nvidia
- Meta teen-harm trial opens in Tennessee
- Trump presses RFK Jr. to scale back childhood vaccines
- Report examines how many US missiles remain
South America · 2
Africa · 5
- Ebola responders in DR Congo strike as recorded cases pass 3,000
- Sudan's army says it has retaken the Khartoum to El Obeid highway
- Uganda starts emergency food distribution after 19 hunger deaths in Karamoja
- Jihadist attacks kill at least 31 in north-eastern DR Congo
- Chad notifies the UN of its withdrawal from the ICC



