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US and Saudi jets hit militia sites in IraqStrong earthquake hits Kumamoto in southwestern Japan, at least 13 deadChip shares slide worldwide after report on Chinese lithography machinesUS and Iran exchange messages as Trump repeats threat to strike Pickaxe MountainWildfires near Bordeaux and Madrid force mass evacuations as a new heatwave arrivesIsraeli strike destroys Gaza City mosque as Katz says Israel holds 60 percent of the StripTrump and Zelensky discuss Patriot interceptor production in UkraineIran rejects Omani plan for joint control of the Strait of HormuzOpenAI nears $500bn data-centre deal with $250bn Nvidia backstopTrump and Netanyahu meet at the White House with Iran at the centreIran's missile force intact after five months, US munitions stocks reported lowBrent falls more than 6% as US-Iran talks advance and Aramco shuts Jizan refineryIran hangs two men over Isfahan police deaths as 1,500 prisoners strikeSudan's army retakes four towns on the road to besieged El ObeidUS Senate votes 86-12 to advance Russia sanctions billHouthis say they struck Saudi tanker NCC Ghazal in the Red SeaIsrael says its forces destroyed 24 villages in south LebanonPentagon opens review of US troop levels in EuropeRights group says Pakistani forces shot dead 30 protesters in KashmirMoonshot AI open-sources the infrastructure behind Kimi K3German court's leniency toward Berlin Pride attacker sparks political debateUS bans imports of Chinese humanoid robots and power invertersUkraine attacks Moscow region with more than 390 drones overnightHamas signals readiness to close phase-two Gaza talks as Oxfam presents rebuild planApple becomes the second company worth $5 trillionSettler violence spreads in the West Bank as 550 Israeli ex-officials write to TrumpRecord rainfall brings floods and typhoons from Afghanistan to TaiwanTurkiye and Iraq sign energy and security agreementsKeiko Fujimori sworn in as Peru's president amid protests in LimaSyria says security deal with Israel is close as it absorbs 9,000 YPG fightersKyiv seeks to defuse row with Tehran over Caspian Sea ship strikeIndia's Cockroach movement threatens new protests after mass student arrestsSudanese civilians describe inescapable drone attacks as refugees in Chad run short of waterMpox outbreak in Madagascar reaches 3,000 casesEscaped OpenAI agent hacks account at second tech firmChina asks public for clues on deadly dam collapseBeijing rejects US Section 301 probe into overcapacityBrazil takes US tariffs to the WTO, Trump refuses to extend USMCAJohnson & Johnson to pay $5.5bn over talc cancer claimsUS accelerates asylum removals as Haitians lose TPSTaiwan drills moving arms production under Chinese attackAnthropic model finds new attacks on weakened encryptionUAE and US to develop military AI applications togetherCompany reports world's largest natural hydrogen find in MoselleCubans endure blackouts six months into US oil blockadeFAA warns seats on hundreds of 737 Max jets may need inspectionRussia's military claims capture of Krasny Kut in Donetsk regionFuel runs short in Ukraine and Moldova after strikes and port blockadeErdogan orders framework law for PKK disarmamentFifa plans to sell up to 20% of World Cup commercial rights
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Brent falls more than 6% as US-Iran talks advance and Aramco shuts Jizan refinery

5 sources

Brent crude dropped more than 6 percent on Tuesday to about $83 a barrel as negotiations between Washington and Tehran gained traction, extending a retreat of roughly 16 percent from last week's peak above $100. At the same time Saudi Aramco suspended its 400,000 barrel-a-day Jizan refinery until mid-August after a Houthi attack, and the Red Sea route Riyadh uses to bypass the Strait of Hormuz remains under threat.

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Iran war oil shock

What happened

Brent fell 6.27 percent to $82.82 a barrel on Tuesday and WTI 5.42 percent to $78.13 as US-Iran negotiations gained traction, The National reported. Both benchmarks have given back about 16 percent from last Thursday's peak, when Brent topped $100 for the first time since late May after Houthi fighters struck Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. Saudi Aramco suspended operations at its Jizan refinery, which processes 400,000 barrels a day, on 27 July; Reuters, citing the consultancy IIR, reported damage to the gasification unit and the oil storage area and a restart expected by 15 August. The Houthis said on 25 July they had attacked Aramco facilities at Jizan and Yanbu with missiles and drones, after declaring a maritime embargo on Riyadh and blocking the Bab al-Mandeb. US and Iranian strikes stopped before the end of last week, and Trump said an agreement was possible while warning that American military action would resume if diplomacy failed.

The view from outside

The National in Abu Dhabi cites a Pakistani source close to the talks saying the US-Iran channel has widened to include the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea, and quotes Julius Baer's Norbert Rucker that the current spike should prove short-lived. Russia's TASS relayed the Aramco shutdown via Reuters without further comment. The Wall Street Journal reports China is still securing Middle East crude despite sanctions.

What could happen next

Riyadh loses 400,000 barrels a day of refining capacity until mid-August, just as attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed it onto the Red Sea route the Houthis now threaten, the New York Times reports. Prices turned on Monday and fell further on Tuesday after a Brent rally of nearly 40 percent since the war reignited this month. The Financial Times frames the coming weeks as a test of whether Trump can talk prices down; both Washington and Tehran say strikes can resume, so the discount rests on the talks holding. The next markers are the widened negotiating agenda covering Bab al-Mandeb and the Jizan restart set for 15 August.

How the camps see it

  • United States: Trump says talks with Tehran could produce an agreement but warns that military strikes will resume if diplomacy fails.

  • Iran: Tehran halted its strikes and keeps messaging channels open, having warned that attacks could restart if Washington continues its strikes.

  • Saudi Arabia: Riyadh has shut the attacked Jizan refinery until mid-August and depends on the Red Sea route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

  • Houthis: The Yemeni movement claims the strikes on Aramco sites at Jizan and Yanbu and enforces what it calls a maritime embargo on Riyadh.

Also involved

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Worth reading

Sources

The NationalTASSNew York Times

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