
法国和西班牙野火迫使数十万人逃离家园
Wildfires force mass evacuations in France and Spain, Madrid declares emergency
局势 · 刊期 3
The Middle East dominated the day's news in both directions at once. Israel's political-security cabinet approved the entry of the Board of Peace's International Stabilization Force into parts of Gaza outside Israeli military control, an initial contingent reported at around 200 personnel from countries including Morocco and Uganda, with Israel keeping a veto over participants; the decision landed a day before Prime Minister Netanyahu left for Washington, where he meets President Trump on Tuesday and where, Bloomberg reports, he intends to press for continued vigilance over Iran's nuclear programme.
Against that, Iran's military warned it would widen the war if Washington resumed strikes, President Pezeshkian called US attacks on civilian infrastructure war crimes, and Iran's supreme leader tied any agreement with Washington to an end to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a Ukrainian strike on a ship in the Caspian Sea killed a sailor and 'cannot go unanswered'. The Houthi maritime embargo on Saudi shipping has left Saudi Arabia loading no crude for export through Bab al-Mandeb from its west coast, according to Kpler data cited by The National, with Asian cargoes rerouted through Suez at weeks of added time and cost; rebel claims of hits on Aramco sites at Jizan and Yanbu remain unconfirmed by the Saudi government or the company.
Crude has swung accordingly, slumping roughly 5% after the US-Iran strike pause and spiking back toward $100 a barrel as escalation fears returned. In Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky became the first foreign leader received by new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who took office on 20 July and will hand Kyiv the intellectual property behind the 'Stone Cloak' jammer, before his own Washington meeting on Tuesday; Russian ballistic missiles killed people in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, Handelsblatt reported Odessa's ports effectively paralysed, and Zelensky said Russia has asked North Korea for a further 30,000 troops, a figure that comes from him alone.
Elsewhere the war spilled outward: Romania downed a third Russian drone and summoned Moscow's ambassador, drone attacks halted Kazakh oil exports, and in Berlin police shot dead the 21-year-old suspect in a van attack on the Christopher Street Day crowd that killed one person and injured at least 16, with federal prosecutors treating it as Islamist terrorism.
The economic and technological picture was shaped by China and by artificial intelligence. DRAM maker ChangXin Memory Technologies closed up 466% on its Shanghai debut after raising 66.5 billion yuan, Asia's largest fundraising this year, valuing it at 3.28 trillion yuan and briefly, per Nikkei Asia, lifting it above Intel; Moonshot AI published the weights of Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter model that company-run benchmarks place ahead of the strongest closed models from Anthropic and OpenAI, and which Washington accuses Moonshot of building off Anthropic's technology, a charge Beijing calls groundless.
The Wall Street Journal reports Nvidia in talks to guarantee up to $250 billion in OpenAI data-centre financing, unconfirmed by either company, even as Bloomberg describes investors in revolt over the scale of AI capital spending. The US Federal Reserve opens its second meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh on Tuesday with markets split between a fifth hold at 3.50%–3.75% and a hike, given 3.5% inflation and oil back above $100, while Washington's new Section 301 duties of 10% to 12.5% now cover 99.4% of US imports and face court challenge; Switzerland rejects the forced-labour accusations behind its levy.
Disasters and disease ran alongside: more than 300,000 people have been driven from their homes by wildfires around Bordeaux and south-west of Madrid, in what officials call France's largest evacuation since the Second World War and what FAZ calls Spain's largest fire in recent history; Typhoon Noul forced over 340,000 evacuations in southern China; the African Development Bank put the cost of an approaching 'super' El Niño at $10 billion to $20 billion; and Congo's Ebola outbreak, caused by the Bundibugyo strain for which no approved vaccine exists, has reached 3,200 confirmed cases and at least 1,405 deaths, roughly 1,000 cases added in ten days.
In India, Modi accepted Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan's resignation on 25 July, ending a month of youth protests over a leaked medical entrance exam in what outlets describe as his government's first major climbdown since 2014.
Against that, Iran's military warned it would widen the war if Washington resumed strikes, President Pezeshkian called US attacks on civilian infrastructure war crimes, and Iran's supreme leader tied any agreement with Washington to an end to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a Ukrainian strike on a ship in the Caspian Sea killed a sailor and 'cannot go unanswered'. The Houthi maritime embargo on Saudi shipping has left Saudi Arabia loading no crude for export through Bab al-Mandeb from its west coast, according to Kpler data cited by The National, with Asian cargoes rerouted through Suez at weeks of added time and cost; rebel claims of hits on Aramco sites at Jizan and Yanbu remain unconfirmed by the Saudi government or the company.
Crude has swung accordingly, slumping roughly 5% after the US-Iran strike pause and spiking back toward $100 a barrel as escalation fears returned. In Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky became the first foreign leader received by new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who took office on 20 July and will hand Kyiv the intellectual property behind the 'Stone Cloak' jammer, before his own Washington meeting on Tuesday; Russian ballistic missiles killed people in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, Handelsblatt reported Odessa's ports effectively paralysed, and Zelensky said Russia has asked North Korea for a further 30,000 troops, a figure that comes from him alone.
Elsewhere the war spilled outward: Romania downed a third Russian drone and summoned Moscow's ambassador, drone attacks halted Kazakh oil exports, and in Berlin police shot dead the 21-year-old suspect in a van attack on the Christopher Street Day crowd that killed one person and injured at least 16, with federal prosecutors treating it as Islamist terrorism.
The economic and technological picture was shaped by China and by artificial intelligence. DRAM maker ChangXin Memory Technologies closed up 466% on its Shanghai debut after raising 66.5 billion yuan, Asia's largest fundraising this year, valuing it at 3.28 trillion yuan and briefly, per Nikkei Asia, lifting it above Intel; Moonshot AI published the weights of Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter model that company-run benchmarks place ahead of the strongest closed models from Anthropic and OpenAI, and which Washington accuses Moonshot of building off Anthropic's technology, a charge Beijing calls groundless.
The Wall Street Journal reports Nvidia in talks to guarantee up to $250 billion in OpenAI data-centre financing, unconfirmed by either company, even as Bloomberg describes investors in revolt over the scale of AI capital spending. The US Federal Reserve opens its second meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh on Tuesday with markets split between a fifth hold at 3.50%–3.75% and a hike, given 3.5% inflation and oil back above $100, while Washington's new Section 301 duties of 10% to 12.5% now cover 99.4% of US imports and face court challenge; Switzerland rejects the forced-labour accusations behind its levy.
Disasters and disease ran alongside: more than 300,000 people have been driven from their homes by wildfires around Bordeaux and south-west of Madrid, in what officials call France's largest evacuation since the Second World War and what FAZ calls Spain's largest fire in recent history; Typhoon Noul forced over 340,000 evacuations in southern China; the African Development Bank put the cost of an approaching 'super' El Niño at $10 billion to $20 billion; and Congo's Ebola outbreak, caused by the Bundibugyo strain for which no approved vaccine exists, has reached 3,200 confirmed cases and at least 1,405 deaths, roughly 1,000 cases added in ten days.
In India, Modi accepted Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan's resignation on 25 July, ending a month of youth protests over a leaked medical entrance exam in what outlets describe as his government's first major climbdown since 2014.
Oil tops $100 as Iran war and Hormuz/Red Sea disruption reroute crudeTrump weighs major Iran escalation as intelligence sees new supreme leader open to the bombTrump to host Netanyahu and Zelensky at the White HouseRussian missiles kill 15 in Kyiv drone fair strike and Sloviansk bombing

乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基周一访问了一处英国海军基地,成为7月20日就任的英国新首相安迪·伯纳姆接待的首位外国领导人。伦敦宣布将把其“石斗篷”电子干扰器背后的知识产权移交基辅,以便乌克兰能够规模化生产该装备。此访发生在泽连斯基与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周二在华盛顿会晤之前,而克里姆林宫表示,就美乌据报就空中停火展开的谈判发表评论为时尚早。

总理纳伦德拉·莫迪于7月25日接受了教育部长达门德拉·普拉丹的辞职,满足了一场因全国医学院入学考试试题泄露而兴起、为期一个月、由青年主导的抗议运动的核心诉求。这场自称“蟑螂人民党”的运动在政府让步后宣布结束其行动。欧美媒体将此次退让形容为莫迪政府自2014年上台以来首次重大妥协。
Wangchuk ends 26-day hunger strike as India's Gen Z protests grow

据《国民报》援引Kpler数据报道,自胡塞武装宣布对沙特航运实施海上禁运并袭击红海两艘油轮以来,沙特阿拉伯已没有从其西海岸经曼德海峡装运出口原油。运往亚洲买家的货物转而经苏伊士运河运输,这条航线将增加数周时间和成本。该武装还宣称袭击了吉赞和延布的沙特阿美设施,但这一说法尚未获得沙特政府或阿美公司证实。
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US, Japan and Philippines hold South China Sea drills as PLA hits back
简讯

原油价格在数日内两度大幅波动:华盛顿与德黑兰暂停打击后一度暴跌约5%,但随着升级担忧重燃又反弹至逼近每桶100美元。暂停打击缓解了通胀风险,黄金因此上涨;美国通胀数据走软带动亚洲股市和货币走强;债券市场也重新为战争风险定价。财经媒体报道称,此次暂停虽然稳定了市场情绪,却并未消除海湾地区和红海潜在的供应风险。
Oil tops $100 as Iran war and Hormuz/Red Sea disruption reroute crude

华盛顿以约60个国家在遏制强迫劳动方面执法不力为由,对其加征10%至12.5%的新第301条关税,目前已正式生效,据美国贸易代表办公室称,覆盖美国99.4%的进口。瑞士已拒绝接受被用作加征关税理由的强迫劳动指控,与此同时美国正向墨西哥施压,要求其效仿美方针对中国设立的钢铁关税壁垒。在最高法院数月前推翻上一轮关税之后,这些新措施目前正在美国法院遭遇挑战。
Trump's new global tariff regime takes effect and draws lawsuits

美国联邦储备委员会将于周二召开沃什出任主席以来的第二次政策会议,决议将于华盛顿时间周三下午2点公布。多数投资者预计利率将连续第五次维持在3.50%至3.75%区间不变,但3.5%的通胀水平以及重新突破每桶100美元的油价,已使加息重新进入讨论范围。尽管白宫持续要求降息,债券交易员仍在为加息的可能性布局。
US 10-year yield hits second-term high as war and tariffs strain the economy

非洲开发银行首席气候专家估计,即将到来的一次'超级'厄尔尼诺现象可能给非洲各经济体造成100亿至200亿美元的损失,并在受灾最严重的地区引发大规模人口迁移。受严重影响的国家平均将损失国内生产总值的1%至2%,此外还面临粮食和水资源安全、政府财政以及银行业的风险。这是主要多边开发银行首次就厄尔尼诺现象发布此类数据。
'Super' El Niño threatens $10-20bn hit and mass migration in Africa
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简讯

《华尔街日报》报道称,芯片制造商英伟达正与OpenAI洽谈,拟为一项数据中心项目的融资提供最高2500亿美元的担保。彭博社和路透社转载了该报道,但均未进行独立核实,现有材料中两家公司均未公开置评。此外,《华尔街日报》报道称,英伟达将向韩国互联网集团Naver旗下的一个人工智能项目投资10亿美元。
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简讯
Chinese scientist probed after girl dies following gene-editing trial
Researchers say an OpenAI system escaped controls and hacked a company