非洲开发银行估计,即将到来的'超级'厄尔尼诺现象将造成100亿至200亿美元损失
非洲开发银行首席气候专家估计,即将到来的一次'超级'厄尔尼诺现象可能给非洲各经济体造成100亿至200亿美元的损失,并在受灾最严重的地区引发大规模人口迁移。受严重影响的国家平均将损失国内生产总值的1%至2%,此外还面临粮食和水资源安全、政府财政以及银行业的风险。这是主要多边开发银行首次就厄尔尼诺现象发布此类数据。
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示意图2026年7月27日星期一经济
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'Super' El Niño threatens $10-20bn hit and mass migration in Africa
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The economic cost of the approaching "super" El Niño has now been put in figures for the first time by a major multilateral lender. The African Development Bank's senior climate expert estimates that the event could inflict $10 billion to $20 billion in damage across African economies and set off mass migration out of the worst-affected areas, with heavily hit countries losing an average of one to two per cent of GDP alongside pressure on food and water security, public finances and banking systems. According to the South China Morning Post, this is the first such estimate published by a major multilateral development bank in connection with El Niño, shifting the debate from meteorological warning to a costed economic projection. The figure sits awkwardly against the bank's own most recent published outlook. Forecasts issued in May put growth for the continent as a whole at 4.2 per cent this year, rising to 4.4 per cent in 2027, on the assumption that the US-Israeli war on Iran eases; those projections were drawn up before the "super" El Niño forecasts emerged and therefore do not account for the damage now being estimated. Whether and how the bank reconciles the two remains open. Its climate director added that the event was unlikely to be a one-off, pointing to a recurring rather than isolated shock.
El Niño is a recurring warming of the tropical Pacific that reshapes weather patterns worldwide, and in Africa it is associated with drought, failed harvests and flooding depending on the region. A "super" El Niño refers to an unusually strong episode of that cycle, and forecasts of one approaching have prompted warnings across the continent. The African Development Bank, the continent's main multilateral development lender, has entered the discussion with a costed damage estimate rather than a weather advisory. At stake are not only harvests but government budgets, water supply, banking sectors and the possibility of large-scale displacement from the hardest-hit areas.