Wednesday, 15 July 2026 · EconomyChina's growth cools: weakest quarter in more than three years
China's economy grew by only about 4.3 percent in the second quarter, the weakest quarter in more than three years; for the half-year the figure stands at a gain of 4.7 percent. Weak domestic demand and oil prices driven up by the war with Iran are weighing on the economy, while foreign trade remains strong.
The bare numbers are undisputed: 4.7 percent growth in the first half of the year, a markedly cooler second quarter. On the interpretation, however, the camps clash head-on. The Chinese state media Global Times and Xinhua frame the 4.7 percent as "well within" the government's annual target, point to per capita disposable income up by 5.2 percent and highlight foreign trade running "splendidly." Western business media read the same data as a warning sign: The Wall Street Journal speaks of a stronger-than-expected slowdown, the Financial Times of the lowest growth in more than three years at the bottom of the target range, and the Handelsblatt cites only 4.3 percent for the quarter. The BBC takes a middle position and names both, saying weak domestic demand and the oil-price effect of the war with Iran overshadowed the strong exports. The slowdown is a fact; what is contested is whether China is still comfortably within its target corridor or whether structural weakness is increasingly overshadowing its export successes.
Global Times · Wall Street Journal · Financial Times · Handelsblatt · BBC News
Monday, 13 July 2026 · EconomyChina's foreign trade grows strongly in the first half of the year
China's foreign trade grows strongly in the first half of the year
China's foreign trade grew by 16.9 percent in the first half of 2026 and exceeded 25 trillion yuan, with imports rising by 22 percent. June exports jumped by 27 percent, driven by the AI boom. Deliveries to Germany also rose markedly once again.
The state-run Global Times and Xinhua celebrate the half-year gain of 16.9 percent to over 25 trillion yuan, along with an import increase of 22 percent, as proof of China's opening and strength of demand; for the 15th Five-Year Plan, Beijing announces more imports for "balanced" trade development. The AP and the WSJ confirm the 27 percent jump in June exports, driven by AI demand. The Handelsblatt highlights that China's exports to Germany again rose strongly. At the same time, Global Times rejects German criticism: Chancellor Merz's accusation of an undervalued currency is "unilateral pressure." The sources span the arc from state-optimistic (China) to sober (US/Germany); doubts about the sustainability of the growth (weak domestic demand) remain underexposed in this selection.
Global Times · Associated Press · Wall Street Journal · Handelsblatt
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
Trade remains robust thanks to AI demand, but weak domestic demand and the tariff dispute with the West dampen the outlook for the second half of the year. ✓
▲Worst case20%
New Western tariffs and the Hormuz crisis disrupt supply chains and cause export momentum to collapse.
▼Best case25%
The AI boom and Beijing's import offensive sustain the upturn, and the trade dispute with Europe eases.
Monday, 13 July 2026 · EconomyTrump imposes naval blockade and 20 percent levy on Hormuz transit
Trump imposes naval blockade and 20 percent levy on Hormuz transit
President Trump has reinstated the US naval blockade against Iranian ships and demanded a 20 percent levy on all goods passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The measure is to be enforced from Tuesday. Economists warn of a doubling of freight costs for oil and goods.
Roughly a fifth of the world's traded oil passes through the strait; the NYT calculates that the 20 percent toll could double transport costs. Trump ties the blockade to a demand that the wealthy Gulf states pay for their protection against Iranian attacks (Al Jazeera). The Berliner Zeitung and the AP stress the consequences for consumers: gasoline, gas and heating costs are likely to rise, and oil prices have already climbed by around nine percent. Critics see the levy as a legally questionable charge imposed on international waters; the AP also asks how difficult it actually is to keep the strait open militarily. The sources are broad (US, Germany, Gulf) but weigh Washington's cost-and-power perspective heavily; Iranian counterarguments are largely absent.
New York Times · Berliner Zeitung · Associated Press · Al Jazeera
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
The blockade is partially enforced, shipping companies avoid the route or pay, and freight and energy prices remain elevated without the toll fully taking hold. ✓
▲Worst case20%
Iran responds with a de facto closure of the strait, the price of oil surges past 100 dollars and triggers a global inflationary shock.
▼Best case25%
International pressure and complaints about its legality force Washington to withdraw or suspend the levy quickly. ✓
Sunday, 12 July 2026 · EconomyAsian chip stocks in sell-off despite TSMC record
Asian chip stocks in sell-off despite TSMC record
An AI-driven sell-off in South Korea spilled over into the US, and SK Hynix shares fell sharply. At the same time, TSMC reported record revenue, but investors fear the boom is overheating.
On July 12, the sell-off in Asian semiconductor stocks continued. Bloomberg reported that SK Hynix ADRs fell about 9 percent in the US after an AI-driven sell-off in South Korea, underscoring growing concerns about an overstretched AI rally. At the same time, the Financial Times warned that TSMC, SK Hynix and Samsung together already account for 29 percent of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and that investors view this concentration with unease. Set against this was a record quarter for TSMC on the back of strong AI demand, with the company also announcing two new packaging plants in Taiwan, according to Reuters. Daily Sabah points to the downside for consumers, according to which laptops, smartphones and consoles are becoming more expensive due to the AI-driven chip shortage. The camps are at odds: optimists see the TSMC record as proof of the ongoing strength of AI demand, while skeptics warn of a dangerous index concentration and bubble formation.
Bloomberg · Financial Times · Financial Times · Reuters
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
Chip stocks remain volatile, but robust AI demand and record profits support them, without a broad crash. ✓
▲Worst case20%
The overstretched valuation tips over, and a sell-off of the few dominant chip stocks drags the emerging-market indices and the tech rally down globally.
▼Best case25%
Strong quarterly figures and new capacity convince investors, prices recover and the boom continues in an orderly fashion.
Friday, 10 July 2026 · EconomySK Hynix stages record US IPO as the AI chip boom continues
SK Hynix stages record US IPO as the AI chip boom continues
South Korean memory chip maker SK Hynix raised 26.5 billion dollars in its US market debut. The stock jumped by up to 17 percent above its 149 dollar offer price on its first Nasdaq trading day. The record listing is seen as another test of demand for AI-related stocks.
With its Nasdaq debut on July 10, SK Hynix pulled off one of the largest foreign IPOs ever, raising 26.5 billion dollars. The stock opened at around 170 dollars, well above the 149 dollar offer price, and rose at times to as high as 177 dollars. The rush is seen as evidence of persistently strong investor demand for companies that benefit from the AI boom, since memory chips are central to AI data centers. At the same time, the Financial Times warns against overexuberance: despite the boom, the market does not consider the cyclical boom-and-bust character of the memory business to be over, even if some believe otherwise. The range of sources is balanced, with optimistic market reports from the NYT and BBC and a more skeptical assessment from the FT.
BBC News · New York Times · Financial Times (Debüt) · Financial Times (Analyse)
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
AI-driven demand for memory chips stays high, more chip stocks head to market, and valuations remain ambitious.
▲Worst case25%
The cyclical memory market turns, overcapacity pushes down prices and share prices, and the AI hype corrects sharply.
▼Best case20%
The AI buildout sustains the memory business, SK Hynix cements its market position, and the rally continues.
Thursday, 9 July 2026 · GeopoliticsAustralia to supply uranium to India for nuclear power
Australia to supply uranium to India for nuclear power
Australia and India have concluded an agreement on exporting Australian uranium for India's civilian nuclear power. The deal deepens the two countries' energy cooperation.
Australia and India have agreed on a deal allowing the export of Australian uranium to India for use in civilian nuclear power. Australia holds some of the world's largest uranium reserves, and India, facing growing energy demand and its climate targets, needs additional fuel sources for its nuclear program. The deal deepens the energy and security rapprochement between two Indo-Pacific partners, which can also be seen as part of broader efforts to diversify supply chains and curb Chinese influence. Critical voices are likely to point to nonproliferation and environmental aspects of the uranium export, which the thin reporting so far has yet to examine closely.
Daily Sabah
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
The uranium deal is implemented and deepens the Indian-Australian energy and security partnership in the Indo-Pacific.
▲Worst case15%
Nonproliferation concerns or domestic political resistance in Australia delay or endanger the deliveries.
▼Best case25%
The deal becomes a model for further cooperation and visibly strengthens India's climate-friendly energy supply.
Thursday, 9 July 2026 · TechnologyAI boom drives new models and multibillion-dollar deals
AI boom drives new models and multibillion-dollar deals
OpenAI, Meta and others present new AI models and products, while a record wave of deals sweeps the economy. SK hynix raises 26.5 billion dollars in a U.S. listing.
The AI race produced several headlines at once on July 9. OpenAI unveiled GPT-5.6 Sol, its most powerful model to date, whose release had been delayed by U.S. government cybersecurity requirements, and at the same time launched ChatGPT Work for professional use. Meta countered with a new model of its own and announced it would invest more than 9.1 billion dollars in its first Canadian AI data center. Chipmaker SK hynix, a beneficiary of the memory boom for AI data centers, raised 26.5 billion dollars in a large U.S. listing. In parallel, the NYT reports a deal frenzy of 3.2 trillion dollars, the highest half-year figure in a decade, driven by the AI economy. Critics continue to warn of possible overheating. The range of sources is broad but at times colored by market-optimistic tones.
New York Times · New York Times · The Guardian · Daily Sabah
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
The AI investment and model race continues, chipmakers and data centers benefit, but individual valuations come under increasing pressure to justify themselves.
▲Worst case20%
The overheating unloads in a sharp correction when profits fall short of the AI promises, and the deal wave breaks off.
▼Best case20%
New models and products deliver measurable productivity gains that justify the high investments and sustain the upswing.
Monday, 6 July 2026 · EconomySK Hynix Launches Stock Sale in the US for 28 Billion Dollars
SK Hynix Launches Stock Sale in the US for 28 Billion Dollars
South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix has launched a US stock sale to raise the equivalent of around 28 billion dollars. Major investors have shown interest of up to 7 billion dollars.
SK Hynix, one of the world’s leading memory chip makers, launched a stock sale in the US on Monday to raise around 43 trillion won, or about 28.07 billion dollars. According to Daily Sabah, major investors have already signaled interest of up to 7 billion dollars. The capital raise comes at a time when the AI boom is strongly driving demand for high-performance memory and chipmakers are investing massively in new capacity. The report relies on a single state-aligned source and stays with the figures; a critical assessment of the valuation and risks of the issue is missing and should be kept in mind.
Daily Sabah
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
The issue succeeds and finances the expansion of memory chip capacity for AI demand.
▲Worst case15%
A cooling of the AI boom or valuation doubts cause investor demand to collapse and put the share price under pressure.
▼Best case25%
Strong demand drives the issue beyond plan and cements SK Hynix as a central supplier of the AI economy.
Sunday, 5 July 2026 · EconomyFoxconn warns of geopolitical risks despite 40 percent revenue jump
Foxconn warns of geopolitical risks despite 40 percent revenue jump
Taiwanese contract manufacturer Foxconn reports a revenue jump of nearly 40 percent for the second quarter, driven by the AI-server boom. At the same time, the company explicitly warns of geopolitical uncertainties. The key Apple and Nvidia supplier sees its supply chains under mounting pressure.
Foxconn, the world's largest electronics contract manufacturer and a key supplier to Apple and Nvidia, recorded a revenue increase of nearly 40 percent in the second quarter, driven above all by demand for AI servers. Despite the strong figures, management is sounding unusually clear warnings, according to Daily Sabah, pointing to geopolitical risks that could weigh on the business. It is referring to tensions between the United States and China, possible tariffs and the vulnerable position of Taiwan, from where much of the world's high-tech production is directed. This puts the boom in AI hardware in contrast with the fragility of the supply chains on which it rests. The report comes from a single source close to the Turkish state, which summarizes Foxconn's statements without broader context. The case is a prime example of how dependent even highly profitable tech companies have become on world politics.
Daily Sabah
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
The surge in AI demand continues to carry Foxconn's growth, while geopolitical risks remain a persistent burden in the background.
▲Worst case20%
An escalation in the Taiwan conflict or new US-China tariffs disrupts the supply chains and abruptly slows the hardware boom.
▼Best case20%
The geopolitical situation stays manageable and AI demand delivers a record year for Foxconn and its customers.
