Monday, 13 July 2026 · GeopoliticsCoalition of the Willing shows unity at Bastille Day parade in Paris
To mark France's national holiday, soldiers and fighter jets from several allies of the "Coalition of the Willing" marched through Paris as a sign of support for Ukraine. Macron announced joint maneuvers in countries neighboring Ukraine and intends to allow Kyiv to produce SCALP cruise missiles under license. Ukrainian President Zelensky was guest of honor.
According to Le Monde, around 500 soldiers from Germany, Australia, Canada, Romania, the United Kingdom, Poland and Ukraine took part in the parade. Macron announced joint coalition exercises in countries neighboring Ukraine and pledged to grant Kyiv a license to produce French SCALP cruise missiles itself, as well as to deliver fighter jets (Meduza, Daily Maverick). Politico Europe emphasizes the European partnership in building a missile defense of its own ("not just for Ukraine"). From a Russian perspective, Serbia's Politika mocks that in the Kremlin the Coalition of the Willing is called the "Coalition of Warmongers." Notably, Serbia's President Vucic was, as the first Serbian head of state, a guest at the parade, which Belgrade celebrates as geostrategic recognition. The sources range from Western-sympathetic to pro-Russian and dismissive.
Le Monde · Associated Press · Politico Europe · Die Welt
Sunday, 12 July 2026 · GeopoliticsCoalition of the Willing meets in Paris, Zelensky reshuffles leadership
Coalition of the Willing meets in Paris, Zelensky reshuffles leadership
The Coalition of the Willing convened in Paris and discussed joint military exercises and a defense against Russian missiles. At the same time, Zelensky announced a shake-up of Ukraine's leadership, including the removal of the prime minister.
On July 12, the Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine met in Paris, as FAZ and Der Spiegel reported, with possible joint military exercises and closer cooperation against the Russian missile threat on the agenda. Reuters reported the formation of a coalition designed specifically to counter Russia's ballistic missiles. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan took part in the talks after the NATO summit, according to Daily Sabah, underscoring Ankara's involvement. In parallel, President Zelensky announced a broad leadership reshuffle, according to the New York Times, in which Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko is to give up her post, while the war, in Ukraine's reading, is turning in Kyiv's favor. At the same time, both sides reported at least six dead in mutual attacks on infrastructure, according to Daily Sabah. The Western sources paint a picture of stepped-up support, but independent confirmation of the claimed turn in the war is lacking.
FAZ · New York Times · Reuters · Daily Sabah
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
The coalition agrees on further pledges of support and defense projects, but concrete joint troop deployments remain vague and the war drags on.
▲Worst case15%
Russia treats the Western exercise plans as an escalation and responds with massive strikes, while the Ukrainian leadership reshuffle turns into a domestic political crisis.
▼Best case25%
The pooled European missile defense has a noticeable effect, Kyiv's military situation stabilizes, and the reshuffle produces a more capable government.
Saturday, 11 July 2026 · GeopoliticsUkraine expands war capacity: secret drone factory in Germany and attacks on Russian oil tankers
Ukraine expands war capacity: secret drone factory in Germany and attacks on Russian oil tankers
According to reports, a secret factory in Germany is producing AI drones for Ukraine, with the involvement of the defense start-up Helsing. At the same time, Ukraine reportedly attacked Russian oil tankers in the Sea of Azov. Kyiv is thus increasingly shifting the war onto Russia's supply lines and exports.
Ukraine is expanding its military capabilities on several fronts: according to corroborating reports, a secret factory in Germany is producing AI-assisted drones for the Ukrainian armed forces, with the defense start-up Helsing playing a central role. This brings European high technology directly into Ukraine's war logistics. In parallel, Ukraine reportedly attacked Russian oil tankers in the Sea of Azov, continuing its strategy of hitting Russia's energy revenues and supply lines. This approach has shown effect lately, as strikes on refineries have noticeably squeezed Russian processing capacity and triggered fuel shortages inside the country. From the Russian point of view, the tanker attacks are likely to be seen as an escalation, and independent confirmation of the damage is still pending. The reports rest in part on individual outlets (Berliner Zeitung, NYT DealBook), so details are still to be treated with caution. Against the backdrop of Putin's rejection of new peace overtures, the situation is deteriorating further.
New York Times (DealBook) · Berliner Zeitung · Berliner Zeitung
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
Ukraine continues its deep-strike and tanker attacks and expands drone production further with European partners.
▲Worst case20%
Russia retaliates for the tanker attacks with massive strikes and widens the front, putting a peace settlement far out of reach.
▼Best case25%
The growing pressure on Russia's economy brings Moscow to the negotiating table after all.
Thursday, 9 July 2026 · GeopoliticsNATO summit in Ankara puts Turkey at center stage
NATO summit in Ankara puts Turkey at center stage
The NATO summit in Ankara showcases Turkey as a key player in the alliance. Erdogan held talks with Balkan leaders, and Washington signaled it may ease the CAATSA sanctions on Ankara.
The 2026 NATO summit in Ankara gave Turkey an unusually prominent stage. On the sidelines, President Erdogan held bilateral talks with several Balkan heads of state on defense cooperation and regional security. Turkey's defense ministry welcomed remarks by U.S. President Trump suggesting the United States is moving closer to lifting the CAATSA sanctions that weigh on Ankara over its purchase of Russian S-400 systems. Poland described Turkey as an important ally on the alliance's southeastern flank. The reporting here comes largely from the state-aligned Daily Sabah and paints an emphatically favorable picture of Turkey's role, which should be kept in mind when assessing it. As a host's gesture, Ankara presented the assembled leaders with engraved pistols and leather-bound books.
Daily Sabah · Daily Sabah · Daily Sabah · Daily Sabah
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
Turkey uses its raised profile to gradually negotiate CAATSA relief and more defense cooperation with NATO partners, without fully abandoning its ties to Russia.
▲Worst case15%
The dispute over the S-400 and the Cyprus question flares up again and blocks concrete outcomes, leaving the summit largely symbolic.
▼Best case25%
The summit produces solid commitments on defense spending and deterrence on the southeastern flank, and the United States actually begins to lift the CAATSA sanctions.
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 · GeopoliticsUS Allows Ukraine Local Production of Patriot Missiles
US Allows Ukraine Local Production of Patriot Missiles
President Trump announced that Washington would permit Kyiv to produce guided missiles for the Patriot air defense system in Ukraine itself. The aim is to reduce dependence on deliveries from the West.
Trump stated that the US would allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot missiles locally, which could ease Kyiv’s chronic shortage of air-defense munitions amid ongoing Russian air strikes. The move would be strategically significant, as it would make Ukraine more independent of protracted foreign deliveries and shift production closer to the front and more resilient to crisis. Details on timeline, scope and licensing terms remained open for now. The report rests so far on a single source and Trump’s own announcement, so its implementation and reach should be assessed with caution.
Daily Sabah
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
Local production comes, but more slowly and on a smaller scale than announced, so the effect on air defense will only become noticeable in the medium term.
▲Worst case20%
The announcement remains largely without consequence or is later withdrawn, while Russian air strikes keep Ukraine under pressure.
▼Best case25%
Manufacturing gets underway swiftly and visibly gives Ukraine more defensive capacity against Russian missiles and drones.
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 · GeopoliticsNATO Summit in Ankara: Alliance Struggles Its Way to Unity
NATO Summit in Ankara: Alliance Struggles Its Way to Unity
At the close of the two-day NATO summit in Ankara, heads of state and government issued a joint declaration. Host Erdogan spoke of a “foundation for a stronger NATO,” while Secretary General Rutte cited broad unity despite palpable tensions.
The summit in the Turkish capital ended with a joint closing declaration and a show of unity, after disputes over burden-sharing and the stance toward Russia had loomed in the run-up. President Erdogan used the stage to underline Türkiye’s growing role in the alliance, and US President Trump praised him effusively as a “great leader.” Concrete results were achieved on the sidelines: Türkiye, Bulgaria and Romania expanded their Black Sea mine-clearing mission, and the US apparently held out the prospect of Ankara returning to the F-35 program. Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis avoided clear words on the matter, but warned of an “open threat” and urged sensitivity, laying bare the persistent friction on NATO’s southeastern flank. The state-aligned Turkish press portrays the summit throughout as a success and an elevation of Ankara’s standing, while Western voices such as The Economist speak rather of a “bipolar summit” that the alliance barely managed to survive. The sourcing is heavily Turkish, and the overall tone is correspondingly positive.
The Economist · Daily Sabah · Daily Sabah · Daily Sabah
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
The closing declaration holds on the surface, but the disputes over burden-sharing, the F-35 and the Greece-Türkiye relationship keep smoldering and flare up again at the next opportunity.
▲Worst case15%
Turkish-Greek tensions and Trump’s unpredictable course quickly undermine the unity again and make the summit look like a facade.
▼Best case25%
The projects launched in Ankara, such as the Black Sea mine-clearing mission and the F-35 rapprochement, consolidate the southeastern flank and give the alliance renewed cohesion.
Tuesday, 7 July 2026 · GeopoliticsNATO Summit in Ankara: Trump Holds Out Prospect of Ending Sanctions and F-35 Jets for Turkey
NATO Summit in Ankara: Trump Holds Out Prospect of Ending Sanctions and F-35 Jets for Turkey
On the second day of the NATO summit in Ankara, Erdogan received numerous heads of state and government, including Trump on his first visit to Turkey. Trump announced that he would lift the CAATSA sanctions and allow Turkey to purchase F-35 fighter jets, praised his chemistry with Erdogan and at the same time criticized other NATO partners.
The 36th NATO summit in Ankara became a stage for a Turkish-American rapprochement on July 7: Trump met with Erdogan at the presidential palace and held out the prospect of lifting the CAATSA sanctions imposed in 2020 over the purchase of Russian S-400s, as well as clearing the sale of F-35 jets to Ankara. Erdogan expressed confidence that long-standing points of contention could be settled, and staged Turkey as a strategic heavyweight of the alliance. Trump praised his ‘chemistry’ with Erdogan, but once again used the appearance to admonish allies for their low defense spending. In parallel, NATO decided to build a strategic airlift fleet with Airbus A400M aircraft and up to ten Saab GlobalEye at a cost of around 4.5 billion dollars. The coverage relies heavily on the state-aligned Turkish Daily Sabah, which portrays the summit as a success for Erdogan; the Economist, by contrast, speaks of a tense summit with continental rifts. This one-sided source situation must be taken into account when assessing the Turkish success reports.
Daily Sabah · Balkan Insight · Daily Sabah · The Economist · Daily Sabah
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
The announced lifting of sanctions is implemented step by step, but the F-35 sale drags on for months due to the unresolved S-400 dispute and resistance in the US Congress.
▲Worst case15%
The rapprochement collapses because Congress blocks the lifting of sanctions or Turkey does not give up its S-400 systems, which poisons the relationship again.
▼Best case25%
The end of sanctions and the jet deal are quickly sealed and bind Turkey more closely to NATO, strengthening the alliance on its southeastern flank.
Monday, 6 July 2026 · GeopoliticsNATO Summit in Ankara: Erdogan Puts On a Show, Rutte Courts Trump
NATO Summit in Ankara: Erdogan Puts On a Show, Rutte Courts Trump
NATO is meeting this week in Ankara. President Erdogan is using the summit to showcase Turkey’s strategic weight, while Secretary General Rutte tries to keep the US in the alliance through demonstrative flattery of Trump.
The NATO summit in the Turkish capital Ankara sets two readings side by side. Balkan Insight interprets the meeting primarily in domestic terms: Erdogan is showing the outside world Turkey’s geostrategic indispensability while tightening the political reins at home. The Economist, meanwhile, defends the course of Secretary General Mark Rutte, whose emphatically obsequious flattery of US President Trump may look embarrassing but serves a good purpose, namely keeping the US in the alliance and securing the Europeans’ defense commitments. Both sources share the assessment that the cohesion of the alliance currently depends heavily on personalities and symbolism. The range of sources is narrow, with a Western-liberal and a regional perspective; a Turkish state-aligned or Eastern European counterpoint is missing.
The Economist · Balkan Insight
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
The summit ends with reaffirmed defense commitments and a symbolic elevation of Turkey, without any change to the underlying conflict between Erdogan’s ambitions and Western expectations.
▲Worst case15%
Trump ties further US commitments to new conditions, or Erdogan blocks decisions, so that the summit exposes the cracks in the alliance rather than mending them.
▼Best case25%
The allies agree on concrete, higher defense spending and a viable division of roles that reduces dependence on individual personalities.
Sunday, 5 July 2026 · GeopoliticsEurope promises billions for defense but fails to deliver the money
Europe promises billions for defense but fails to deliver the money
Most Europeans want stronger armed forces but are not willing to pay for them, the Economist analyzes. At the same time, von der Leyen and Rutte are calling on industry to produce more, better and faster. A widening gap is opening up between political promises and actual funding.
The Economist paints a sobering picture of European rearmament: while polls show that most citizens support stronger armies, their willingness to bear higher spending or taxes for it remains low. The promised funds are flowing slowly, with budget constraints and political resistance holding up implementation. In an accompanying guest essay, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte argue that defense is indeed being revitalized, but that the arms industry must now produce more, better and faster. This pits two camps against each other: the political leadership, which stresses urgency and progress, and the sober analysis, which points to the gap between rhetoric and the state of the coffers. Both texts come from the liberal Economist; a broader source base is missing on this day. The core remains: Europe's defense capability will be decided less by declarations of intent than by the question of who foots the bill.
The Economist · The Economist (Gastbeitrag von der Leyen/Rutte)
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
Europe continues to raise defense budgets nominally, but implementation and industrial capacity lag behind the pledges.
▲Worst case25%
Budget disputes and public resistance cause rearmament to stall and reveal dangerous capability gaps.
▼Best case15%
Political pressure and industrial cooperation close the gap, and Europe becomes noticeably more defensible within a few years.
