Tankers reroute around Hormuz as Iran says Oman deal alone will not reopen strait

What happened

• CENTCOM said on Monday, 3 August, that it had also disabled two commercial ships and boarded two others during the blockade.
• UAE exports through the strait fell nearly 53 percent in July to 950,000 barrels per day, from 2.01 million in June.
• Ship crossings averaged 18.7 a day in July, down from 24.7 in June, according to data firm Kpler.
• Combined loadings from the eight Gulf exporters averaged 4 million bpd in July, against a prewar 19 to 20 million.
• OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise September output quotas by a further 188,000 bpd.

The view from outside

The German daily FAZ notes that physical fuel supply in Europe has held despite an IEA warning in April that jet fuel stocks would last only about six weeks; Slovenia was the rare case of state-capped sales volumes, aimed at cross-border tank tourism.

What could happen next

• Trump said US-Iran talks on a peace agreement would begin on Monday, and that any deal must include immediate reopening of the strait.
• Unclear whether the Iran-Oman route agreement is concluded, and who would guarantee safe passage through the strait.
• OPEC+ increases stay largely on paper: Saudi Arabia pumped 7.34 million bpd in June, nearly 3 million below its quota.
• FAZ asks whether acute supply shortages could still hit Europe in the coming months.