Symbolic imageIMF chief says AI investment holds global growth near 3% but warns of job disruption
IMF head Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday that AI investment is keeping global growth around 3% despite the energy shock. She called AI a "slow-moving tsunami" for labour markets.
Speaking on the first day of the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok on Monday, 12 October, Georgieva described the AI boom as a "demand shock, an investment shock". She said it could lift growth by 0.5 to 1 percentage point in advanced Asian economies and by 0.2 to 0.8 points in emerging Asian ones. The IMF estimates that AI will augment, downgrade or eliminate about 40% of jobs worldwide, around 60% in advanced economies and 23% in low-income countries, where she says the lower figure reflects slower spread, not protection. The fund publishes updated forecasts on Tuesday, after its July projection of 3.0% growth for 2026.
Jobs and the tax base
An IMF study found that 10% of US jobs already require AI skills, while routine jobs shrink and lower-paid ones grow in construction and data centres. Georgieva named young people entering the labour market as most vulnerable and warned that a shift from labour to capital could erode government revenue.
Bond selloff clouds the outlook
The Financial Times reports that a government bond selloff has pushed borrowing costs to multi-decade highs, as central banks dropped rate-cut plans for increases. A Brookings-FT tracker sees "worrying omens" behind robust growth, and the IMF expects public debt to exceed 100% of GDP before 2030, according to Premium Times.