Symbolic imageUS growth beats forecasts as inflation climbs, raising pressure on Fed
The US economy grew at a 3.4% annualized rate in the third quarter, while September inflation rose to 3.6%. Markets expect the Fed to raise rates in December.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday, 29 October, that GDP beat the 3.2% economists expected and accelerated from 2.2% in the second quarter. The Financial Times and Reuters attribute the gain to consumer spending, up 3.8%, and AI investment, with private fixed investment rising 9.4%, its largest increase since 2020. Both offset higher fuel costs from the Iran war.
Inflation and the Fed
The PCE price index, the Fed's preferred gauge, rose to 3.6% in September from 3.4%, and core inflation to 3.1%. After the Fed held rates at 3.75%-4% on Wednesday, CME data show 86% of market participants expecting a quarter-point rise before year-end, Handelsblatt reports.
Doubts about the strength
Imports of tech equipment dragged on net exports, and the Guardian notes some economists doubt AI spending gives a true picture. Gasoline is above $4 a gallon, households are saving less, and consumer sentiment has deteriorated days before Tuesday's midterms.
Federal debt
The Wall Street Journal reports that federal debt has reached 100% of GDP.