Symbolic imageIsrael's race stays tight as Netanyahu courts right-wing voters
Polls put Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar ahead of Netanyahu's Likud, but neither bloc has a majority. Israelis vote on Tuesday.
N12 and Channel 13 polls published on Wednesday, 21 October, gave Yashar 23 and 20 seats, with Likud at 19 in both. N12 put the opposition bloc at 55 seats and Netanyahu's at 51, Channel 13 at 52 and 49. According to a Jerusalem Post analysis, Netanyahu has stopped pressing Ofer Winter and Moti Leitner to quit the race after they refused, and now targets their voters directly. He and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich warn of a repeat of 1992, when a split right-wing vote cost the bloc power.
Threshold may decide the blocs
The Taub Center estimates a party needs about 165,635 votes at 70% turnout. The two polls disagree on whether Winter's People of Israel or Yoaz Hendel's Reservists-Economic Party clears it. A Channel 13 pollster said the change bloc would gain more if both fall short, while Hendel says nobody can tell his voters how to vote.
Iran and Trump frame the close
Netanyahu told the Jerusalem Post that intelligence services warned of Iranian attempts to influence the vote, and that Israel would respond with force. Trump endorsed him on Sunday, 18 October; a Jerusalem Post editorial called that foreign interference.
Coalition options
Smotrich said he would not rule out a government with Eisenkot, but not at the price of boycotting right-wing partners. Assessments cited by the Jerusalem Post say Netanyahu might consider a unity government without Itamar Ben-Gvir.