Symbolic imageFrench risk premium hits euro-crisis levels as borrowing costs pass US
French 10-year yields stayed above 5% on Thursday, and the spread over German Bunds is the widest since 2011. Budget deadlock and unrest are driving the selloff.
The French 10-year yield broke 5% on Wednesday, 21 October, for the first time since 2002 and touched 5.1415% on Thursday, Reuters reports. The spread over German Bunds widened to 177.7 basis points, the widest since November 2011, and the Guardian notes that French borrowing costs now exceed US Treasury yields for the first time since 2013. Le Monde blames the deadlock over the 2027 budget: deputies have already widened the deficit by about ten billion euros, according to the public accounts minister. Moody's rating decision is due on Friday.
Unrest weighs on sentiment
After violent protests on the weekend of 17 and 18 October, the interior ministry counted nearly 2,400 arrests. Ministers promised troops alongside extra police for further protests on Saturday. Carrefour's chief executive put the cost to the group at 80 to 200 million euros, Le Monde reports.
Contagion and the ECB
Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid says Italy's spread widened to 116 basis points and Spain's to 66. Nomura's Andrzej Szczepaniak sees a very high bar for ECB intervention, and ING expects the bank to hold rates next week. Shares in France's top three lenders have fallen 17% in six weeks, Reuters reports.