Symbolic imageFrench 10-year yield passes 5% as spread to Germany widens
France's 10-year borrowing cost topped 5% on Wednesday for the first time since 2002. The spread to Germany is at its widest since 2011.
The yield on the 10-year bond reached 5.005% around 11:05 on Wednesday, 21 October, against 4.926% at Tuesday's close, Le Monde reports; the Guardian says it later eased to 4.99%. Le Monde links the move to investor doubts after the riots and looting of the weekend of 17 to 18 October. The spread to Germany reached 157 basis points, a gap seen only briefly in 2011. France now pays more than Italy (4.57%) and Spain (4.06%).
Budget stalemate
The government has yet to pass its 2027 budget, the Guardian notes. Le Monde puts the draft's new efforts at 43 billion euros to bring the deficit to 5% of GDP, while El País cites 54 billion euros in cuts. The Swiss bank UBP sees little chance of realistic consolidation before the May 2027 presidential election.
Moody's review and growth risk
Moody's reviews France's rating on Friday; it currently stands at Aa3 with a negative outlook. The French economic institute IFE says its 2027 growth forecast of 0.5%, which assumes yields averaging 4.5%, would need cutting if they stay above 5%.