Thursday, 16 July 2026 · EconomyTrump announces new tariffs on Brazil
The US administration plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on certain imports from Brazil, citing allegedly unfair trade practices. The new levies replace earlier tariffs that the Supreme Court had struck down. Similar investigations are reportedly also underway against Germany.
The Trump administration has announced new tariffs of 25 percent on a range of Brazilian products, accusing Brazil of unfair trade practices. The New York Times frames the move as one in which the new levies replace earlier tariffs that the Supreme Court had previously declared impermissible, meaning Washington is seeking a new legal route. Handelsblatt reports that similar investigations are also underway against Germany and frames the measure as part of a broader protectionist line. The left-liberal NYT emphasizes the legal backstory and the political conflict with Brazil, while the market-liberal German view stresses the danger to European exporters. Brazilian reactions are not yet extensively reflected in the available reports, so the opposing perspective remains thin for now. The push fits into Trump's ongoing trade conflict with numerous partners, whose concrete shape repeatedly depends on courts and negotiations.
New York Times · Handelsblatt
Thursday, 16 July 2026 · GeopoliticsEpstein files: Vance concedes the government "completely botched" their release
Epstein files: Vance concedes the government "completely botched" their release
US Vice President J.D. Vance conceded on Joe Rogan's podcast that his administration had "absolutely botched" the release of the Epstein files, laying much of the blame on former Attorney General Pam Bondi. At the same time, the Justice Department denied the state of New Mexico files for its own investigation. The dispute over withheld documents keeps piling pressure on Trump's camp.
Vice President J.D. Vance told podcaster Joe Rogan that the Trump administration had "completely botched" the communication around the Epstein files and should have released all the documents from the outset; former Attorney General Pam Bondi had "overstated what we had." Politico and the Guardian read this as a rare admission from the top of government, reflecting the persistent discontent even within Trump's own base. Al Jazeera reports at the same time that the US Justice Department is denying the state of New Mexico files that it considers crucial for its criminal investigation into alleged abuse on Epstein's ranch. The conservative Welt emphasizes Vance's assignment of blame to Bondi, while left-liberal papers foreground the fundamental charge of a lack of transparency. The dispute goes back to Bondi's suggestion of a client list in early 2025 and a contested memo stating that no such list existed and that there was no evidence of blackmail. How much is actually being withheld remains contested between the camps.
Politico · The Guardian · Die Welt · Al Jazeera
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
The pressure persists and the government gradually releases further, partly redacted documents, without an incriminating client list becoming public.
▲Worst case20%
New revelations or court proceedings implicate high-ranking figures and considerably deepen the crisis for Trump's administration.
▼Best case25%
A comprehensive, transparent release pulls the ground from under the accusations and calms the debate.
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 · GeopoliticsDeaths in ICE operations: Mexico brings in the UN, checks suspended
Deaths in ICE operations: Mexico brings in the UN, checks suspended
Within a week, several people died during operations by the U.S. immigration agency ICE, most recently a 26-year-old Colombian in Maine and a man in Florida. ICE thereupon suspended most vehicle stops "with immediate effect"; Mexico brought in the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.
The camps report the facts in agreement: two fatal incidents within a week, plus another death in Florida, where a man fleeing ICE agents was struck by a tractor-trailer. The conservative Die Welt frames the suspension of stops as a precautionary measure pushed through by a Republican senator, while the left-liberal Sueddeutsche Zeitung and Le Monde focus on the victims and the "new order" to ICE officers to refrain from vehicle stops for now. Deutschlandfunk and the news agency AP emphasize the diplomatic dimension: Mexico is asking U.S. attorneys general to investigate and is bringing the deaths to UN High Commissioner Tuerk. Qatar's Al Jazeera identifies the latest victim as a Colombian father, personalizing the criticism of the operational practice. What remains contested is whether these are regrettable isolated cases of tough but legitimate immigration enforcement, the reading of the government and its supporters, or a structural problem of violence that requires international oversight.
Die Welt · Süddeutsche Zeitung · Le Monde · Associated Press · Al Jazeera
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
Protests and diplomatic pressure from Mexico and Colombia persist, without the United States fundamentally changing its operational practice.
▲Worst case20%
Further fatal operations escalate tensions with the countries of origin into a broader diplomatic crisis.
▼Best case20%
Public pressure forces a lasting review of ICE's rules of engagement and independent investigations.
Monday, 13 July 2026 · GeopoliticsSecond death in ICE operation: Mexico demands criminal proceedings in the US
Second death in ICE operation: Mexico demands criminal proceedings in the US
During an operation by the US immigration agency ICE in Maine, a 26-year-old Colombian was shot dead, the second fatal incident within a week. Mexico's President Sheinbaum announced that she would formally file for criminal proceedings in the US over the deaths of Mexican citizens. The cases sharpen criticism of Trump's hardline migration policy.
Le Monde and the BBC report that Joan Sebastian Guerrero, a 26-year-old Colombian, was shot dead in his car by an ICE agent on Monday in Biddeford, Maine, apparently after a case of mistaken identity. It is the second death within a week, after a migrant was previously killed in Houston. Al Jazeera reports that Mexico's President Sheinbaum intends to formally file for criminal proceedings in US courts over the deaths of Mexican citizens in immigration operations. The conservative Welt reports soberly on the incident, while center-left sources (Le Monde, SZ) emphasize the escalation of ICE violence. The perspective of the US government remains thin in the selection.
Le Monde · BBC News · Al Jazeera · Die Welt
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
The incidents trigger protests and diplomatic complaints, without the US fundamentally changing its operational practice.
▲Worst case20%
Further fatal operations escalate tensions with Mexico and Colombia and lead to a broader diplomatic crisis.
▼Best case20%
Public pressure forces a review of ICE rules of engagement and independent investigations.
Monday, 13 July 2026 · GeopoliticsUS launches campaign against the International Criminal Court
US launches campaign against the International Criminal Court
The US government is moving against the International Criminal Court in The Hague with a campaign. Secretary of State Rubio accuses the tribunal of interfering in US military and law enforcement matters. The State Department says it will rule out no diplomatic options.
The Handelsblatt reports that the US State Department is openly examining means of pressure against the ICC and does not want to rule out any diplomatic options. The Guardian (center-left) portrays Rubio's push as an attempt to "smash" the global tribunal because it allegedly interferes in US military and law enforcement operations. The move fits into Trump's broader conflict with international institutions and his pressure on the press (NYT subpoenas). Critics see it as an attack on the rules-based order; supporters in the Trump camp regard the ICC as a threat to US sovereignty. The sources are predominantly critical of Washington.
Handelsblatt · The Guardian
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
Washington imposes targeted sanctions on ICC representatives, and the court continues to work under pressure without allies taking a clear position.
▲Worst case20%
The campaign paralyzes the ICC and encourages further states to withdraw, lastingly weakening international criminal justice.
▼Best case20%
European states demonstratively stand behind the court and limit the effect of US pressure.
Monday, 13 July 2026 · GeopoliticsAfter Lindsey Graham's death: sister moves into the Senate
After Lindsey Graham's death: sister moves into the Senate
Following the sudden death of Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, his sister Darline Graham Nordone takes over his seat for the remainder of the term. Trump dismissed speculation about Russian involvement in Graham's death. The case fuels the debate over the age and health transparency of US politicians.
The Sueddeutsche Zeitung reports that Darline Graham Nordone is taking over her deceased brother's seat for the remainder of the term. The AP uses the case for a debate about aging top politicians and a lack of health transparency. The pro-Russian Politika highlights that Trump explicitly rejected suspicions of Russian involvement in the death of the prominent opponent of Russia. Politico Europe examines the foreign policy gap that Graham, a vocal advocate of strikes on Iran and a close ally of Israel, leaves behind in Washington. The sources cover US, German and pro-Russian perspectives.
Süddeutsche Zeitung · Associated Press · Politico Europe · Politika
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely65%
Nordone holds the seat as a stopgap, and the debate over the age and health of politicians fades again without consequences.
▲Worst case10%
New revelations about the circumstances of the death intensify conspiracy speculation and strain the already tense US-Russian relationship.
▼Best case25%
The case leads to a serious cross-party debate on term limits and health transparency.
