Sunday, 12 July 2026 · GeopoliticsCoalition of the Willing meets in Paris, Zelensky reshuffles leadership
The Coalition of the Willing convened in Paris and discussed joint military exercises and a defense against Russian missiles. At the same time, Zelensky announced a shake-up of Ukraine's leadership, including the removal of the prime minister.
On July 12, the Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine met in Paris, as FAZ and Der Spiegel reported, with possible joint military exercises and closer cooperation against the Russian missile threat on the agenda. Reuters reported the formation of a coalition designed specifically to counter Russia's ballistic missiles. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan took part in the talks after the NATO summit, according to Daily Sabah, underscoring Ankara's involvement. In parallel, President Zelensky announced a broad leadership reshuffle, according to the New York Times, in which Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko is to give up her post, while the war, in Ukraine's reading, is turning in Kyiv's favor. At the same time, both sides reported at least six dead in mutual attacks on infrastructure, according to Daily Sabah. The Western sources paint a picture of stepped-up support, but independent confirmation of the claimed turn in the war is lacking.
FAZ · New York Times · Reuters · Daily Sabah
Friday, 10 July 2026 · GeopoliticsPutin rejects peace overture as Trump presses for negotiations
Putin rejects peace overture as Trump presses for negotiations
Kremlin chief Putin rejects renewed calls for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and, according to sources, is preparing a possible military escalation. At the same time, US President Trump is pressing for talks. Russia denies reports of planned exit visas to restrict travel to NATO countries.
According to a report by the Daily Sabah, Vladimir Putin rejects renewed calls for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and is instead preparing a possible military escalation. This stands in contrast to the efforts of US President Trump, who is pressing for talks, leaving the two camps clearly opposed. In parallel, the Russian Foreign Ministry, through spokeswoman Zakharova, denied reports that Russia intends to introduce exit visas to restrict travel to NATO countries. Meduza also reports that many Russian soldiers would rather accept a prison sentence than go to the front: by May 2025, more than 28,000 Russians had been convicted of unauthorized absence from their units, and the military is increasingly bringing deserters back. The sources are divided: pro-government Turkish and Kremlin-critical Russian outlets, with neutral confirmation lacking.
Daily Sabah · Meduza (Deserteure) · Meduza (Ausreisevisa)
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
The war continues without a negotiating breakthrough, Trump increases diplomatic pressure, and Russia bets militarily on escalation.
▲Worst case25%
Russia launches a new major offensive, peace talks collapse entirely, and the conflict widens further.
▼Best case20%
Trump's pressure moves both sides to the negotiating table and leads to a first ceasefire discussion.
Friday, 10 July 2026 · GeopoliticsNATO summit in Ankara strengthens Turkey's strategic role
NATO summit in Ankara strengthens Turkey's strategic role
The NATO summit in Ankara has given Turkey renewed strategic weight, according to Turkish observers. The meeting went beyond the scope of a routine summit and came at a time of heightened tensions. At the same time, the US Congress paved the way for the sale of F110 engines for Turkey's Kaan fighter jet.
Ankara hosted one of the most significant NATO summits in recent history, which Turkey views as confirmation of its growing military and political weight. From the Turkish perspective, presented mainly by the pro-government Daily Sabah, the country has cemented its role as an indispensable ally, from geopolitics to questions of AI. A former British defense minister praised the Turkish direction of the summit. Concretely, the US Congress also paved the way for the sale of F110 engines intended for use in Turkey's domestically developed Kaan fighter jet, an important signal amid recently difficult US-Turkey relations. The range of sources is one-sidedly Turkish; Western or critical perspectives are largely absent on this day, which makes the assessment more difficult.
Daily Sabah (Analyse) · Daily Sabah (NATO/AI) · Daily Sabah (F110)
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
Turkey further expands its role as mediator and arms partner within NATO, the F110 deal advances, and tensions with partners persist.
▲Worst case20%
Disputes over Cyprus, Syria, or arms purchases strain the alliance anew, the engine deal stalls, and relations cool.
▼Best case25%
Turkey uses its weight productively as a bridge-builder, the Kaan deal succeeds, and the alliance's cohesion is strengthened.
Thursday, 9 July 2026 · GeopoliticsNATO summit in Ankara puts Turkey at center stage
NATO summit in Ankara puts Turkey at center stage
The NATO summit in Ankara showcases Turkey as a key player in the alliance. Erdogan held talks with Balkan leaders, and Washington signaled it may ease the CAATSA sanctions on Ankara.
The 2026 NATO summit in Ankara gave Turkey an unusually prominent stage. On the sidelines, President Erdogan held bilateral talks with several Balkan heads of state on defense cooperation and regional security. Turkey's defense ministry welcomed remarks by U.S. President Trump suggesting the United States is moving closer to lifting the CAATSA sanctions that weigh on Ankara over its purchase of Russian S-400 systems. Poland described Turkey as an important ally on the alliance's southeastern flank. The reporting here comes largely from the state-aligned Daily Sabah and paints an emphatically favorable picture of Turkey's role, which should be kept in mind when assessing it. As a host's gesture, Ankara presented the assembled leaders with engraved pistols and leather-bound books.
Daily Sabah · Daily Sabah · Daily Sabah · Daily Sabah
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
Turkey uses its raised profile to gradually negotiate CAATSA relief and more defense cooperation with NATO partners, without fully abandoning its ties to Russia.
▲Worst case15%
The dispute over the S-400 and the Cyprus question flares up again and blocks concrete outcomes, leaving the summit largely symbolic.
▼Best case25%
The summit produces solid commitments on defense spending and deterrence on the southeastern flank, and the United States actually begins to lift the CAATSA sanctions.
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 · GeopoliticsNATO Summit in Ankara: Alliance Struggles Its Way to Unity
NATO Summit in Ankara: Alliance Struggles Its Way to Unity
At the close of the two-day NATO summit in Ankara, heads of state and government issued a joint declaration. Host Erdogan spoke of a “foundation for a stronger NATO,” while Secretary General Rutte cited broad unity despite palpable tensions.
The summit in the Turkish capital ended with a joint closing declaration and a show of unity, after disputes over burden-sharing and the stance toward Russia had loomed in the run-up. President Erdogan used the stage to underline Türkiye’s growing role in the alliance, and US President Trump praised him effusively as a “great leader.” Concrete results were achieved on the sidelines: Türkiye, Bulgaria and Romania expanded their Black Sea mine-clearing mission, and the US apparently held out the prospect of Ankara returning to the F-35 program. Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis avoided clear words on the matter, but warned of an “open threat” and urged sensitivity, laying bare the persistent friction on NATO’s southeastern flank. The state-aligned Turkish press portrays the summit throughout as a success and an elevation of Ankara’s standing, while Western voices such as The Economist speak rather of a “bipolar summit” that the alliance barely managed to survive. The sourcing is heavily Turkish, and the overall tone is correspondingly positive.
The Economist · Daily Sabah · Daily Sabah · Daily Sabah
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
The closing declaration holds on the surface, but the disputes over burden-sharing, the F-35 and the Greece-Türkiye relationship keep smoldering and flare up again at the next opportunity.
▲Worst case15%
Turkish-Greek tensions and Trump’s unpredictable course quickly undermine the unity again and make the summit look like a facade.
▼Best case25%
The projects launched in Ankara, such as the Black Sea mine-clearing mission and the F-35 rapprochement, consolidate the southeastern flank and give the alliance renewed cohesion.
Tuesday, 7 July 2026 · GeopoliticsNATO Summit in Ankara: Trump Holds Out Prospect of Ending Sanctions and F-35 Jets for Turkey
NATO Summit in Ankara: Trump Holds Out Prospect of Ending Sanctions and F-35 Jets for Turkey
On the second day of the NATO summit in Ankara, Erdogan received numerous heads of state and government, including Trump on his first visit to Turkey. Trump announced that he would lift the CAATSA sanctions and allow Turkey to purchase F-35 fighter jets, praised his chemistry with Erdogan and at the same time criticized other NATO partners.
The 36th NATO summit in Ankara became a stage for a Turkish-American rapprochement on July 7: Trump met with Erdogan at the presidential palace and held out the prospect of lifting the CAATSA sanctions imposed in 2020 over the purchase of Russian S-400s, as well as clearing the sale of F-35 jets to Ankara. Erdogan expressed confidence that long-standing points of contention could be settled, and staged Turkey as a strategic heavyweight of the alliance. Trump praised his ‘chemistry’ with Erdogan, but once again used the appearance to admonish allies for their low defense spending. In parallel, NATO decided to build a strategic airlift fleet with Airbus A400M aircraft and up to ten Saab GlobalEye at a cost of around 4.5 billion dollars. The coverage relies heavily on the state-aligned Turkish Daily Sabah, which portrays the summit as a success for Erdogan; the Economist, by contrast, speaks of a tense summit with continental rifts. This one-sided source situation must be taken into account when assessing the Turkish success reports.
Daily Sabah · Balkan Insight · Daily Sabah · The Economist · Daily Sabah
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
The announced lifting of sanctions is implemented step by step, but the F-35 sale drags on for months due to the unresolved S-400 dispute and resistance in the US Congress.
▲Worst case15%
The rapprochement collapses because Congress blocks the lifting of sanctions or Turkey does not give up its S-400 systems, which poisons the relationship again.
▼Best case25%
The end of sanctions and the jet deal are quickly sealed and bind Turkey more closely to NATO, strengthening the alliance on its southeastern flank.
Monday, 6 July 2026 · GeopoliticsNATO Summit in Ankara: Erdogan Puts On a Show, Rutte Courts Trump
NATO Summit in Ankara: Erdogan Puts On a Show, Rutte Courts Trump
NATO is meeting this week in Ankara. President Erdogan is using the summit to showcase Turkey’s strategic weight, while Secretary General Rutte tries to keep the US in the alliance through demonstrative flattery of Trump.
The NATO summit in the Turkish capital Ankara sets two readings side by side. Balkan Insight interprets the meeting primarily in domestic terms: Erdogan is showing the outside world Turkey’s geostrategic indispensability while tightening the political reins at home. The Economist, meanwhile, defends the course of Secretary General Mark Rutte, whose emphatically obsequious flattery of US President Trump may look embarrassing but serves a good purpose, namely keeping the US in the alliance and securing the Europeans’ defense commitments. Both sources share the assessment that the cohesion of the alliance currently depends heavily on personalities and symbolism. The range of sources is narrow, with a Western-liberal and a regional perspective; a Turkish state-aligned or Eastern European counterpoint is missing.
The Economist · Balkan Insight
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
The summit ends with reaffirmed defense commitments and a symbolic elevation of Turkey, without any change to the underlying conflict between Erdogan’s ambitions and Western expectations.
▲Worst case15%
Trump ties further US commitments to new conditions, or Erdogan blocks decisions, so that the summit exposes the cracks in the alliance rather than mending them.
▼Best case25%
The allies agree on concrete, higher defense spending and a viable division of roles that reduces dependence on individual personalities.
Sunday, 5 July 2026 · GeopoliticsEurope promises billions for defense but fails to deliver the money
Europe promises billions for defense but fails to deliver the money
Most Europeans want stronger armed forces but are not willing to pay for them, the Economist analyzes. At the same time, von der Leyen and Rutte are calling on industry to produce more, better and faster. A widening gap is opening up between political promises and actual funding.
The Economist paints a sobering picture of European rearmament: while polls show that most citizens support stronger armies, their willingness to bear higher spending or taxes for it remains low. The promised funds are flowing slowly, with budget constraints and political resistance holding up implementation. In an accompanying guest essay, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte argue that defense is indeed being revitalized, but that the arms industry must now produce more, better and faster. This pits two camps against each other: the political leadership, which stresses urgency and progress, and the sober analysis, which points to the gap between rhetoric and the state of the coffers. Both texts come from the liberal Economist; a broader source base is missing on this day. The core remains: Europe's defense capability will be decided less by declarations of intent than by the question of who foots the bill.
The Economist · The Economist (Gastbeitrag von der Leyen/Rutte)
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
Europe continues to raise defense budgets nominally, but implementation and industrial capacity lag behind the pledges.
▲Worst case25%
Budget disputes and public resistance cause rearmament to stall and reveal dangerous capability gaps.
▼Best case15%
Political pressure and industrial cooperation close the gap, and Europe becomes noticeably more defensible within a few years.
