Thursday, 16 July 2026 · GeopoliticsAmid the fighting: Iran releases US citizen held since 2024
Iran has released Iranian-American dual national Dena Karari, who had been held on espionage charges since December 2024. President Trump said she was "safely out of Iran and in good condition" and thanked Tehran. The release comes in the middle of the military escalation between the two states.
Dena Karari, an Iranian-American dual citizen whose passport had been confiscated in December 2024 and who had since been barred from leaving the country, has been released, according to Washington. Trump announced the news on Truth Social, describing a wrongfully detained person who was now safe, and expressly thanked Iran. The New York Times and the Guardian frame the move as a rare signal of limited understanding, even as US fighter jets continue to strike Iranian targets. The conservative Welt links the release to the simultaneous explosions near Tehran and the disabling of an oil tanker, stressing the contrast between the humanitarian gesture and the ongoing war. Tehran itself gave no detailed rationale, leaving room for interpretation as to whether it was a show of trust, a negotiating signal, or an isolated humanitarian decision. The sourcing on the precise circumstances of the release remains thin.
New York Times · The Guardian · Die Welt
Thursday, 16 July 2026 · GeopoliticsUS-Iran war escalates further: second wave of strikes, naval blockade, and threat of "existential war"
US-Iran war escalates further: second wave of strikes, naval blockade, and threat of "existential war"
Within a single day, the US military flew a second wave of strikes against Iranian coastal defenses and missile positions and reimposed the naval blockade of Iran's ports. Tehran spoke of an "existential war" with America, threatened to halt further energy exports, and reported drone attacks on US bases in Jordan. For the first time, targets in northern Iran were also hit.
According to US Central Command, on Wednesday the US military launched a second wave of strikes on the same day, hitting Iranian coastal defense installations and missile positions after having earlier renewed the naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran declared it was in an "existential war" with the United States and threatened to cut off further regional energy exports; on Thursday morning the Iranian army reported drone attacks on US military installations in Jordan. The Western-oriented sources (Daily Maverick, FAZ, Haaretz) emphasize the growing US firepower, the pressure on Tehran, the first-time expansion of the strikes into the north of the country, and the disabling of an oil tanker. Al Jazeera, by contrast, highlights the civilian damage and quotes an Iranian doctor as saying a US strike damaged a children's cancer clinic; this account comes from an Iranian source and could not be independently confirmed. Serbia's B92 speaks matter-of-factly of a "second strike" and reports the CENTCOM statement. In parallel, Trump praised Tehran's release of a US citizen, which points to narrow channels amid the escalation. The ceasefire brokered by Washington the previous week is now definitively history.
Daily Maverick · Le Monde · FAZ · Al Jazeera · B92
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
The exchange of strikes and retaliation continues for days without the US destroying the underground nuclear facilities or Iran fully closing the Strait of Hormuz.
▲Worst case25%
Trump has Iran's power grid and civilian infrastructure bombed, Iran closes the strait and fires on further US bases, and the war spreads across the region.
▼Best case20%
Mediation pressure from the Gulf states forces a new ceasefire within days along with talks on shipping.
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 · GeopoliticsU.S.-Iran war escalates: new waves of strikes, naval blockade and threat against Iran's infrastructure
U.S.-Iran war escalates: new waves of strikes, naval blockade and threat against Iran's infrastructure
The U.S. military has struck targets in Iran again and reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports with more than 20 warships; the Revolutionary Guards shelled U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. President Trump is threatening to hit power plants and bridges next and says the strikes will continue "until I say it's enough." The Washington-brokered ceasefire has thus collapsed for good.
Overnight, U.S. Central Command said it flew another wave of strikes against missile, drone and air-defense positions in Iran, while Tehran responded with blows against U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan; a hit on a Kuwaiti naval vessel wounded four soldiers. The camps agree on the bare sequence of events, with Western and state-aligned media alike reporting fresh strikes and counterstrikes. They diverge on the interpretation: The New York Times and the Financial Times describe a president who has found an adversary he cannot force to back down and who lacks a strategy, while the FAZ and Die Zeit foreground Trump's threat against power plants and bridges as an attack on civilian infrastructure. Qatar's Al Jazeera quotes Trump's declaration that the strikes will go on "until I say it's enough" and frames the blockade as pressure of dubious legality under international law; Serbia's Politika soberly reports the CENTCOM confirmation and the hit on the Kuwaiti ship. Iran, through Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi, declared the memorandum of understanding with the United States void, a signal that the diplomatic channel is dead for now. Die Zeit is already asking whether Iran is becoming a "failed state," which would make it both weak and dangerous. Observers across the spectrum agree that no end is in sight and that the real question of power, control over the Strait of Hormuz, remains unresolved.
FAZ · New York Times · Financial Times · Al Jazeera · Politika
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
The exchange of overnight strikes and retaliation continues, without the United States hitting the underground nuclear facilities or Iran fully closing Hormuz. ✓
▲Worst case20%
Trump makes good on his threat and strikes Iran's power grid and civilian infrastructure, Iran closes the strait, and the war spreads across the region.
▼Best case25%
Mediation pressure from the Gulf states forces a new ceasefire and talks on shipping within days.
Monday, 13 July 2026 · GeopoliticsIsrael's parliament makes it easier for the ultra-Orthodox to refuse military service
Israel's parliament makes it easier for the ultra-Orthodox to refuse military service
The Knesset has passed a controversial law that makes it easier for ultra-Orthodox Jews to refuse military service. Critics see it as an affront to the fighting troops. The debate divides Israeli society in the middle of the war.
Deutschlandfunk reports that Israel's parliament has passed a law that eases military service for the Haredim. The center-left Haaretz comments sharply: the "Torah study law spits in the soldiers' faces," and accuses the ultra-Orthodox of letting secular Tel Avivians die for the flag while they themselves remain in the yeshiva. The sources here are deliberately domestic Israeli and clearly critical of the law; a detailed defense from the religious camp is missing, so the picture comes out one-sidedly at the expense of the Haredim. The dispute hits Israel at a time when conscription is already strained by the ongoing state of war.
Deutschlandfunk · Haaretz
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
The law takes effect and deepens the social divide without immediately breaking up the governing coalition.
▲Worst case20%
The conflict escalates into mass protests and a government crisis in the middle of the war.
▼Best case25%
Courts or political pressure force a compromise that distributes the burden of service more fairly.
Monday, 13 July 2026 · GeopoliticsUS strikes Iran for a third night, Tehran hits back
US strikes Iran for a third night, Tehran hits back
The US military flew its third consecutive wave of strikes against Iranian targets overnight, while the Revolutionary Guards responded with missiles against bases in the region. Trump openly threatened to destroy underground nuclear facilities. Washington and Tehran have effectively returned to open war.
According to US Central Command, the attack began around 22:45 Central European Time and hit military targets at several locations in Iran; more than 50,000 US soldiers are stationed in the region. Iran fired missiles at a US air base in Jordan, whose military intercepted four projectiles, and Bahrain and Saudi Arabia's Abha airport also reported attacks (Houthi retaliation). Western mainstream outlets (NYT, Zeit) portray a controlled but rapidly escalating situation; Serbia's Politika (state-aligned) and Qatar's Al Jazeera place greater emphasis on US aggression and Trump's threat against the nuclear mountain "Pickaxe Mountain." The NYT also reports on a failed Israeli operation to build up former President Ahmadinejad as a tool for regime change. Iranian voices barely feature directly in the available sources, and the picture remains dominated by Western and Gulf Arab perspectives. What is undisputed: the brief ceasefire is over, and the front line now runs openly.
New York Times · Die Zeit · Al Jazeera · Reuters
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
The exchange of blows continues with further nighttime strikes and retaliation, without either side risking a major attack on nuclear facilities or a ground offensive. ✓
▲Worst case15%
The US attacks the underground nuclear facilities, Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz completely, and the conflict widens into a regional war involving Gulf states and Israel.
▼Best case25%
Mediation pressure from London and the Gulf states leads within days to a renewed ceasefire and talks on shipping.
