Symbolic imageUS intelligence sees Iran's new supreme leader more open to nuclear weapons
American intelligence has concluded that Mojtaba Khamenei, who became Iran's supreme leader after his father was killed in the opening strikes of the current war, is far more inclined than his predecessor to pursue a nuclear weapon. The assessment, first reported by the New York Times and drawn largely from intelligence gathered before the war, comes as Washington focuses on the fortified Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz. US officials say they have seen no evidence that Iran has resumed enrichment or weaponization since the fighting began.
What happened
According to Breitbart, citing a New York Times report published Friday and US officials briefed on the intelligence, the American intelligence community has judged Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to be significantly less hesitant than his father and predecessor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, about pursuing a nuclear weapon. The assessment rests largely on intelligence collected before the current war. Mojtaba took Iran's highest office after his father was killed during the opening strikes of what the report calls Operation Epic Fury; he was reportedly seriously injured in that attack and has not been seen or heard from publicly since. Officials told the Times that his limited communications make his current intentions harder to read. The same officials say they have seen no evidence that Iran has resumed enrichment or weaponization work since the conflict began. Instead, they believe Tehran is preserving surviving assets, equipment and expertise, including material reportedly moved toward the undeclared Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz, after Iran's main sites at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan were destroyed or heavily damaged in Operation Midnight Hammer in June.
The camps
The only side directly quoted in the available material is Washington. US officials present a split picture: intent has hardened at the top of the Iranian system, but observable activity has not resumed, and Tehran's behaviour looks like protection of what remains rather than reconstruction. President Trump has framed the campaign as unfinished, saying "We're not finished at all" when asked about Pickaxe Mountain and answering "Pretty soon" when asked when the United States might strike it, while adding that Washington had first sought to give Tehran a chance to reach an agreement. American and Israeli officials are described as concerned that surviving centrifuges, nuclear material and personnel could be consolidated inside the mountain, whose tunnels are believed to run deeper than those at Fordow. Iran's own position is absent from these sources: no Iranian statement is reported, and the new supreme leader has made no public appearance since assuming power, so his intentions remain an intelligence inference rather than a stated policy.
What's new
The nuclear question has until now been posed mainly in terms of physical damage: what the June strikes destroyed and what survived. The new element is an assessment about intent at the top of the Iranian state, which suggests Tehran's long-term ambitions may have hardened rather than broken despite the destruction. It lands while the US-Israeli war, initially presented publicly as a short campaign, has run for nearly five months and while widening it sits at the top of the American decision chain; the New York Times reported that Trump met his most senior advisers on 24 July 2026 to weigh a major escalation, with no decision reported. Also new this week: reporting that advanced centrifuge equipment may have been moved toward Pickaxe Mountain, a separate CNN report that US officials believe part of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile survived the bombing, and a New York Post report on Saturday describing an examined contingency operation using ground forces, engineers, special operations personnel and ordnance specialists to secure remaining nuclear material if diplomacy fails.
What could happen next
One path runs through the mountain itself. Trump has signalled further military options against Pickaxe Mountain, and a strike or the reported ground contingency to extract enriched uranium would extend the war into a phase involving personnel on Iranian soil rather than air power alone. A second path is diplomatic: any negotiated end to the fighting would now have to address surviving stockpiles, equipment and expertise, and an assessment that the new leadership is more willing to build a weapon raises what Washington and Jerusalem would demand in verification terms. A third is continued stasis, in which Tehran neither restarts declared enrichment nor abandons what it has kept, leaving outside agencies and intelligence services to judge intentions from a leadership that does not speak publicly. Much here is explicitly unconfirmed: the survival of the uranium stockpile, the movement of centrifuges, and the new supreme leader's current thinking are all reported as assessments rather than established fact.
United States: Judges Iran's new supreme leader more willing to pursue a weapon, sees no resumed enrichment, and keeps further military options on the table.
Iran: No public position in the available sources; the new supreme leader has not been seen or heard from since taking office.
Israel: Shares US concern that surviving equipment, material and personnel could be consolidated inside the fortified Pickaxe Mountain complex.