Symbolic imageIran's missile force intact after five months, US munitions stocks reported low
Five months after the United States and Israel began striking Iran, the Financial Times reports that Iran's missile force remains operational and is still hitting targets across the Gulf region. At the same time, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff has told President Trump that American munitions stocks make further escalation questionable. President Pezeshkian toured ports, railways and border terminals that US airstrikes damaged, while US public support for the war stays below 40 percent.
What happened
The war began in late February, when US and Israeli forces jointly attacked Iran (FAZ). A memorandum of understanding halted the fighting in June, but US forces launched new waves of strikes in early July, dated to 8 July by TASS and to 7 July by Le Monde, and Trump then declared the ceasefire terminated, Washington citing an Iranian attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran announced the closure of the strait on 12 July and has since attacked ships crossing it without Tehran's authorisation (Le Monde). US bombing has concentrated on southern Iran along the Gulf, while Iran has struck US facilities in Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Oman, with strikes on US bases in Jordan killing American service members (Financial Times, via TASS). After hundreds of US airstrikes, analysts cited by the FT say Iranian engineers rebuilt underground facilities quickly and Iranian crews improved the accuracy and penetration of their medium-range missiles. President Pezeshkian toured damaged ports, bridges, roads, railways and border terminals at the weekend and ordered faster reconstruction, according to state agency IRNA.
The view from outside
The National in Abu Dhabi argues the confrontation can no longer be called a regional war: Houthi threats against shipping and attacks on Saudi infrastructure, drone launches from Iraqi territory into Saudi Arabia, and Ukraine's reported strikes on vessels carrying Iran-linked cargo in the Caspian tie the conflict to European security. Its editorial concludes that any truce between Washington and Tehran would have to cover Iran-backed paramilitaries in Iraq and Yemen to hold. Russian state agency TASS relays the FT and AP reporting with emphasis on the limits of American firepower.
What could happen next
General Dan Caine has presented Trump with escalation scenarios alongside the warning that current munitions stocks make continued escalation a dubious proposition (AP, via TASS); the New York Times reported on 25 July that Trump shelved a sharp escalation over fears of draining interceptor stocks, which Trump denied. The pause in US and Iranian attacks held into a third day on Monday, with Qatar and Pakistan working as the leading channels to restart ceasefire talks and Oman running a bilateral track with Tehran. Trump has called the contacts very deep talks while warning he would return to very strong military action. Whether shipping through Hormuz resumes, and whether Iranian reconstruction outpaces further strikes, will shape the next round.
United States and Israel: Washington says Iran broke the June memorandum by attacking commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and that the strikes aim to destroy Iranian missiles and missile production.
Iran: Tehran says the United States violated the agreement and betrayed diplomacy for a third time, insists it fulfilled its commitments on safe passage for ships, and casts its strikes as defence of sovereignty.
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