Symbolic imageIEA and OPEC cut oil forecasts as Hormuz stays shut
The IEA and OPEC both trimmed their oil forecasts on Wednesday, blaming the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Crude fell on Thursday after five days of gains.
The International Energy Agency said on Wednesday, 12 August that the standoff has derailed the recovery in oil supply while deepening the demand slump, the Wall Street Journal reported; Bloomberg read the same report as a supply crunch that keeps worsening despite the war's hit to consumption. OPEC blamed stalled talks over the strait for its own downgrade, according to the Journal, which separately reported an unexpected build in US crude stockpiles.
Gulf exporters build around the strait
Gulf oil producers are spending billions on export routes that bypass Hormuz, the New York Times reported: sole reliance on the strait is a risk they will not take even if a ceasefire comes.
Europe's gas stores lowest since 2009
EU underground storage is 59.4% full in mid-August, against about 74% in recent years and the lowest level since 2009 apart from 2021, Le Monde reported, pointing to disrupted LNG shipments from Qatar and the UAE.
Record costs at the Panama canal
Ships avoiding the Gulf and the Red Sea have pushed Panama Canal costs to records: one container vessel paid about $4m at auction to jump a queue of around ten days, the Guardian reported.
Other opinions
Bloomberg argues the strait is not closed as far as the oil market is concerned; the Guardian writes the fighting has effectively closed Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab.