Friday, 10 July 2026 · GeopoliticsNATO summit in Ankara strengthens Turkey's strategic role
The NATO summit in Ankara has given Turkey renewed strategic weight, according to Turkish observers. The meeting went beyond the scope of a routine summit and came at a time of heightened tensions. At the same time, the US Congress paved the way for the sale of F110 engines for Turkey's Kaan fighter jet.
Ankara hosted one of the most significant NATO summits in recent history, which Turkey views as confirmation of its growing military and political weight. From the Turkish perspective, presented mainly by the pro-government Daily Sabah, the country has cemented its role as an indispensable ally, from geopolitics to questions of AI. A former British defense minister praised the Turkish direction of the summit. Concretely, the US Congress also paved the way for the sale of F110 engines intended for use in Turkey's domestically developed Kaan fighter jet, an important signal amid recently difficult US-Turkey relations. The range of sources is one-sidedly Turkish; Western or critical perspectives are largely absent on this day, which makes the assessment more difficult.
Daily Sabah (Analyse) · Daily Sabah (NATO/AI) · Daily Sabah (F110)
Thursday, 9 July 2026 · EconomyTurkey advances de-dollarization, lira deposits at an 11-year high
Turkey advances de-dollarization, lira deposits at an 11-year high
Finance Minister Simsek reports progress on de-dollarization: lira deposits reached an eleven-year high. Ankara reads this as a sign of growing confidence in its own currency.
The Turkish government sees its de-dollarization strategy on track. Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said the share of lira deposits had risen to an eleven-year high, which Ankara interprets as evidence of returning confidence in the domestic currency. De-dollarization is part of a broader course to stabilize the economy after years of high inflation and currency weakness. Critics are likely to object that such a trend can also be bought with high real interest rates and regulatory pressure, and that its sustainability depends on how inflation develops further. The reporting here comes from the state-aligned Daily Sabah and largely reflects the government's view, which is why the positive figures should be treated with caution.
Daily Sabah
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
De-dollarization advances moderately as long as high real interest rates and falling inflation support the lira, but it remains vulnerable to setbacks.
▲Worst case20%
A fresh inflation or confidence shock drives the population back into foreign currencies and undoes the progress.
▼Best case25%
Stable prices and credible monetary policy sustain the trend, and the lira durably gains confidence.
Thursday, 9 July 2026 · GeopoliticsNATO summit in Ankara puts Turkey at center stage
NATO summit in Ankara puts Turkey at center stage
The NATO summit in Ankara showcases Turkey as a key player in the alliance. Erdogan held talks with Balkan leaders, and Washington signaled it may ease the CAATSA sanctions on Ankara.
The 2026 NATO summit in Ankara gave Turkey an unusually prominent stage. On the sidelines, President Erdogan held bilateral talks with several Balkan heads of state on defense cooperation and regional security. Turkey's defense ministry welcomed remarks by U.S. President Trump suggesting the United States is moving closer to lifting the CAATSA sanctions that weigh on Ankara over its purchase of Russian S-400 systems. Poland described Turkey as an important ally on the alliance's southeastern flank. The reporting here comes largely from the state-aligned Daily Sabah and paints an emphatically favorable picture of Turkey's role, which should be kept in mind when assessing it. As a host's gesture, Ankara presented the assembled leaders with engraved pistols and leather-bound books.
Daily Sabah · Daily Sabah · Daily Sabah · Daily Sabah
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
Turkey uses its raised profile to gradually negotiate CAATSA relief and more defense cooperation with NATO partners, without fully abandoning its ties to Russia.
▲Worst case15%
The dispute over the S-400 and the Cyprus question flares up again and blocks concrete outcomes, leaving the summit largely symbolic.
▼Best case25%
The summit produces solid commitments on defense spending and deterrence on the southeastern flank, and the United States actually begins to lift the CAATSA sanctions.
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 · GeopoliticsNATO Summit in Ankara: Alliance Struggles Its Way to Unity
NATO Summit in Ankara: Alliance Struggles Its Way to Unity
At the close of the two-day NATO summit in Ankara, heads of state and government issued a joint declaration. Host Erdogan spoke of a “foundation for a stronger NATO,” while Secretary General Rutte cited broad unity despite palpable tensions.
The summit in the Turkish capital ended with a joint closing declaration and a show of unity, after disputes over burden-sharing and the stance toward Russia had loomed in the run-up. President Erdogan used the stage to underline Türkiye’s growing role in the alliance, and US President Trump praised him effusively as a “great leader.” Concrete results were achieved on the sidelines: Türkiye, Bulgaria and Romania expanded their Black Sea mine-clearing mission, and the US apparently held out the prospect of Ankara returning to the F-35 program. Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis avoided clear words on the matter, but warned of an “open threat” and urged sensitivity, laying bare the persistent friction on NATO’s southeastern flank. The state-aligned Turkish press portrays the summit throughout as a success and an elevation of Ankara’s standing, while Western voices such as The Economist speak rather of a “bipolar summit” that the alliance barely managed to survive. The sourcing is heavily Turkish, and the overall tone is correspondingly positive.
The Economist · Daily Sabah · Daily Sabah · Daily Sabah
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
The closing declaration holds on the surface, but the disputes over burden-sharing, the F-35 and the Greece-Türkiye relationship keep smoldering and flare up again at the next opportunity.
▲Worst case15%
Turkish-Greek tensions and Trump’s unpredictable course quickly undermine the unity again and make the summit look like a facade.
▼Best case25%
The projects launched in Ankara, such as the Black Sea mine-clearing mission and the F-35 rapprochement, consolidate the southeastern flank and give the alliance renewed cohesion.
Tuesday, 7 July 2026 · GeopoliticsNATO Summit in Ankara: Trump Holds Out Prospect of Ending Sanctions and F-35 Jets for Turkey
NATO Summit in Ankara: Trump Holds Out Prospect of Ending Sanctions and F-35 Jets for Turkey
On the second day of the NATO summit in Ankara, Erdogan received numerous heads of state and government, including Trump on his first visit to Turkey. Trump announced that he would lift the CAATSA sanctions and allow Turkey to purchase F-35 fighter jets, praised his chemistry with Erdogan and at the same time criticized other NATO partners.
The 36th NATO summit in Ankara became a stage for a Turkish-American rapprochement on July 7: Trump met with Erdogan at the presidential palace and held out the prospect of lifting the CAATSA sanctions imposed in 2020 over the purchase of Russian S-400s, as well as clearing the sale of F-35 jets to Ankara. Erdogan expressed confidence that long-standing points of contention could be settled, and staged Turkey as a strategic heavyweight of the alliance. Trump praised his ‘chemistry’ with Erdogan, but once again used the appearance to admonish allies for their low defense spending. In parallel, NATO decided to build a strategic airlift fleet with Airbus A400M aircraft and up to ten Saab GlobalEye at a cost of around 4.5 billion dollars. The coverage relies heavily on the state-aligned Turkish Daily Sabah, which portrays the summit as a success for Erdogan; the Economist, by contrast, speaks of a tense summit with continental rifts. This one-sided source situation must be taken into account when assessing the Turkish success reports.
Daily Sabah · Balkan Insight · Daily Sabah · The Economist · Daily Sabah
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
The announced lifting of sanctions is implemented step by step, but the F-35 sale drags on for months due to the unresolved S-400 dispute and resistance in the US Congress.
▲Worst case15%
The rapprochement collapses because Congress blocks the lifting of sanctions or Turkey does not give up its S-400 systems, which poisons the relationship again.
▼Best case25%
The end of sanctions and the jet deal are quickly sealed and bind Turkey more closely to NATO, strengthening the alliance on its southeastern flank.
Monday, 6 July 2026 · EconomyWorld Weathers Historic Oil Shock, but Depleted Reserves Carry Risks
World Weathers Historic Oil Shock, but Depleted Reserves Carry Risks
Since the start of the Iran war, more than a billion barrels of oil have vanished from the market, yet the world economy has so far coped with the shock surprisingly well. At the same time, Turkey’s central bank reports that strong exports have offset the war-driven rise in energy imports.
After the Iran war, the global oil market is proving more resilient than feared. According to Daily Sabah, the world economy has absorbed the disappearance of more than a billion barrels since the start of the war unexpectedly well, among other things by drawing on reserves. But that is precisely where the risk lies: the heavily depleted stocks offer barely any buffer left, so the danger of sharp price jumps continues to hang over the market. At the country level, Turkey’s central bank, the CBRT, reports that robust exports and weaker non-energy imports largely offset the war-driven surge in energy import costs in the second quarter, which supported the trade balance. Both reports come from the same state-aligned Turkish source; an independent or Western check on the optimistic reading is missing and should be kept in mind.
Daily Sabah (Oelschock) · Daily Sabah (CBRT)
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
Prices remain stable for now, but as reserves keep falling, vulnerability to swings from any new disruption increases.
▲Worst case20%
A new supply shock or an escalation in the Gulf meets empty buffers and triggers a sharp price increase with inflationary consequences.
▼Best case25%
Outages are replaced by additional output from other producers, reserves are replenished, and the market normalizes.
Monday, 6 July 2026 · GeopoliticsNATO Summit in Ankara: Erdogan Puts On a Show, Rutte Courts Trump
NATO Summit in Ankara: Erdogan Puts On a Show, Rutte Courts Trump
NATO is meeting this week in Ankara. President Erdogan is using the summit to showcase Turkey’s strategic weight, while Secretary General Rutte tries to keep the US in the alliance through demonstrative flattery of Trump.
The NATO summit in the Turkish capital Ankara sets two readings side by side. Balkan Insight interprets the meeting primarily in domestic terms: Erdogan is showing the outside world Turkey’s geostrategic indispensability while tightening the political reins at home. The Economist, meanwhile, defends the course of Secretary General Mark Rutte, whose emphatically obsequious flattery of US President Trump may look embarrassing but serves a good purpose, namely keeping the US in the alliance and securing the Europeans’ defense commitments. Both sources share the assessment that the cohesion of the alliance currently depends heavily on personalities and symbolism. The range of sources is narrow, with a Western-liberal and a regional perspective; a Turkish state-aligned or Eastern European counterpoint is missing.
The Economist · Balkan Insight
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
The summit ends with reaffirmed defense commitments and a symbolic elevation of Turkey, without any change to the underlying conflict between Erdogan’s ambitions and Western expectations.
▲Worst case15%
Trump ties further US commitments to new conditions, or Erdogan blocks decisions, so that the summit exposes the cracks in the alliance rather than mending them.
▼Best case25%
The allies agree on concrete, higher defense spending and a viable division of roles that reduces dependence on individual personalities.
Friday, 3 July 2026 · EconomyTurkey to Phase Out Fuel Tax Offset by October
Turkey to Phase Out Fuel Tax Offset by October
Ankara plans to gradually wind down its mechanism for offsetting taxes on fuel by October. The measure had been introduced to shield consumers from sharply higher oil prices during the Iran war.
The Turkish government has announced that it will gradually abolish the mechanism for automatic tax offsetting on fuel by October 2026. During the Iran war the instrument had cushioned the impact of sharply rising oil prices at the pump and thus eased the burden on consumers. By withdrawing it, Ankara is signaling that it regards the price spikes as temporary and wants to relieve the public purse. For households this means higher fuel prices going forward and additional inflationary pressure in an already strained environment. The state-aligned Daily Sabah presents the step as a normalization after the crisis; independent dissenting voices are missing on this backfill day, so the framing remains one-sided. The move fits into the ongoing realignment of Turkish fiscal policy.
Daily Sabah
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
The offset expires as planned, fuel prices rise moderately and slightly fuel inflation.
▲Worst case20%
Renewed oil price spikes now hit consumers with no cushion and intensify social and political pressure on Ankara.
▼Best case25%
Stable or falling oil prices make the phase-out painless and noticeably relieve the state budget.
Thursday, 2 July 2026 · EconomyTurkey pushes AI start-ups and foreign financing
Turkey pushes AI start-ups and foreign financing
With the GITEX tech fair in Istanbul, Turkey aims to strengthen its AI start-up scene, while Türk Eximbank secures a syndicated loan of 830 million dollars. Both steps underscore Ankara's ambition to catch up economically and technologically.
Turkey is making its mark on two fronts at once: according to Daily Sabah, the GITEX tech fair coming to Istanbul is intended to give a boost to the domestic AI start-up scene and attract international investors and talent. In parallel, Türk Eximbank has raised a syndicated loan of 830 million dollars, which demonstrates the country's access to foreign financing despite a strained economic situation. From the government's perspective, both reports fit into a narrative of modernisation, locational strength and international connectivity. More critical observers are likely to point out that high financing costs, inflation and currency risks continue to burden the Turkish economy and that individual successes should not obscure this. The evidence rests on two reports from the same, state-aligned outlet, so the account is tendentially positively coloured. Together, the news items show Ankara's balancing act between future ambitions and financial constraints.
Daily Sabah (GITEX) · Daily Sabah (Eximbank)
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely55%
Turkey attracts individual investments and attention for its AI scene, but its momentum stays held back by inflation and financing costs.
▲Worst case20%
Economic instability and currency pressure drive investors away again, so that the AI and financing offensive largely fizzles out.
▼Best case25%
The fair and the loan trigger a lasting inflow of capital and talent and establish Istanbul as a regional tech hub.
Wednesday, 1 July 2026 · EconomyTurkey seeks connection to the EU financial system
Turkey seeks connection to the EU financial system
Foreign Minister Fidan declares that Turkey is interested in joining the EU payment system. At the same time, Kazakhstan's Freedom Holding receives the green light to acquire a Turkish bank.
According to reports by Daily Sabah, Turkey is making moves on financial policy: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that the country is interested in connecting to the EU's payment system and that the responsible financial institutions were working on it. In parallel, the Kazakh financial services provider Freedom Holding announced that it had received approval from the Turkish banking regulator and the competition authority to acquire around 99.3 percent of a Turkish bank. Both announcements point to a stronger integration of Turkey into international financial flows, both toward the EU and into the Central Asian region. Since both reports come from the pro-government Turkish source Daily Sabah, the account is likely to be colored in a government-friendly way; independent assessments or EU reactions are not yet available.
Daily Sabah (EU-Zahlungssystem) · Daily Sabah (Freedom Holding)
Forecast · Assessment
●Most likely60%
Turkey gradually deepens its financial ties, but full accession to EU payment traffic remains for now a mere declaration of intent.
▲Worst case20%
Political tensions with the EU and regulatory hurdles cause the rapprochement to fizzle out.
▼Best case20%
Turkey achieves a robust connection to the EU financial system, thereby strengthening investment and stability.
