US-Iran war escalates further: second wave of strikes, naval blockade, and threat of "existential war"Amid the fighting: Iran releases US citizen held since 2024Russian missiles hit Kyiv, fires in the capitalZelensky dismisses Defense Minister Fedorov in the midst of warEpstein files: Vance concedes the government "completely botched" their releaseWildfires in Canada: Toronto briefly has the world's worst airFrance passes assisted-dying lawCuba: third nationwide power outage within a weekSouth Korea's central bank raises rates for the first time in three and a half yearsTrump announces new tariffs on BrazilOil and gas prices rise on the Middle East escalationChina's EV offensive pressures Western manufacturersNvidia advances AI robots in Japan, Hyundai takes full control of Boston DynamicsChina clears Apple Intelligence, with Alibaba and Baidu as partnersTSMC heads for record profit thanks to AI boomEU accepts improvements from Musk's platform XUS-Iran war escalates further: second wave of strikes, naval blockade, and threat of "existential war"Amid the fighting: Iran releases US citizen held since 2024Russian missiles hit Kyiv, fires in the capitalZelensky dismisses Defense Minister Fedorov in the midst of warEpstein files: Vance concedes the government "completely botched" their releaseWildfires in Canada: Toronto briefly has the world's worst airFrance passes assisted-dying lawCuba: third nationwide power outage within a weekSouth Korea's central bank raises rates for the first time in three and a half yearsTrump announces new tariffs on BrazilOil and gas prices rise on the Middle East escalationChina's EV offensive pressures Western manufacturersNvidia advances AI robots in Japan, Hyundai takes full control of Boston DynamicsChina clears Apple Intelligence, with Alibaba and Baidu as partnersTSMC heads for record profit thanks to AI boomEU accepts improvements from Musk's platform X
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Narrative thread · 3 events · Forecast hits 1/3

Shipowners and Freight Market

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Since the start of the Iran war on 28 February 2026, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been largely blocked, and at the same time the Houthis resumed their attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea. Shipping companies such as CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd subsequently levied war-risk and crisis surcharges of up to 3,000 US dollars per container for cargo to and from the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. According to company figures, Maersk is paying around 500 million US dollars in additional fuel costs per month and Hapag-Lloyd 50 to 60 million euros per week, because many ships instead take the significantly longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, which adds 3,500 to 4,000 nautical miles and 10 to 14 days. Freight rates on the Shanghai-Jebel Ali route have quadrupled since the start of the war, from under 2,000 to over 8,000 US dollars per container. Industry observers assume the disruptions are likely to last several more months given the unresolved geopolitical situation.

Lloyd's ListCNBCFreightos

Timeline in detail

Wednesday, 15 July 2026Geopolitics

Trump scraps the 20 percent toll for the Strait of Hormuz

Just a day after announcing it, President Trump has dropped the planned 20 percent fee on cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and says he will replace it with trade deals with the Gulf states. Observers read the reversal as a sign that Washington is looking for a way out of the war with Iran.

On Monday Trump had announced a 20 percent levy on all goods passing through the strait under U.S. protection; on Tuesday he withdrew the plan. All camps report the sequence the same way, but assess it differently: the BBC reads the abrupt about-face as evidence that Trump is struggling to end a war now in its fifth month. The Economist judges that the president has "no good options" to reopen the strait, but stresses that the blockade is also proving costly for an already cash-strapped Iran. The Sueddeutsche Zeitung and The New York Times emphasize that the fee would have driven global energy prices still higher and that the retreat defuses that danger. Turkey's pro-government Daily Sabah reports the reversal matter-of-factly as further proof of Washington's zigzag course. Serbia's N1 broadcaster raises the fundamental question of whether such a toll, weighed by both Iran and the United States, would even be lawful. The sources agree that the withdrawal changes nothing about the military escalation: instead of the toll, Washington is now betting on bilateral arrangements with the Gulf states.

BBC NewsNew York TimesDaily SabahThe EconomistN1

Tuesday, 14 July 2026EconomyTrump drops 20 percent Hormuz toll in favor of Gulf deals

Trump drops 20 percent Hormuz toll in favor of Gulf deals

US President Trump has dropped the 20 percent fee on cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz that he had announced just 24 hours earlier. Instead, he is relying on bilateral arrangements with the Gulf states, while the US prepares a blockade of Iranian ports.

The sources agree at the core: Trump withdrew the 20 percent transit fee for the Strait of Hormuz announced the day before and is now betting on deals with the Gulf states. The Wall Street Journal reports soberly on the monetary about-face, while the British BBC places the move in the larger context of an ongoing US attempt to break Iran's control over the waterway, including a prepared port blockade. Reuters emphasizes the diplomatic reorientation toward the Gulf monarchies. The German FAZ foregrounds the economic consequences and shows how shipping companies like Hapag-Lloyd profit from the Iran war and scarce freight capacity with generous surcharges. The retreat from the toll is treated as fact; whether it signals weakness or tactical calculation remains disputed. The Western sources predominantly interpret it as a reaction to market pressure and diplomatic resistance. An Iranian or Gulf Arab internal view is not present in the raw reports.

Wall Street JournalBBC NewsReutersFAZ

Forecast · Assessment
  • Most likely55%

    The Gulf deals replace the toll, but the blockade preparations keep freight rates and oil prices high.

  • Worst case20%

    The port blockade escalates into open clashes in the strait and sends energy prices soaring worldwide.

  • Best case25%

    A deal with the Gulf states de-escalates the situation and shipping quickly returns to normal.

Thursday, 9 July 2026GeopoliticsNew U.S.-Iran strikes cause Hormuz traffic to collapse

New U.S.-Iran strikes cause Hormuz traffic to collapse

After fresh attacks, the number of ships on the U.S.-backed Hormuz route drops sharply, many of them oil and gas tankers. Markets are growing more doubtful about the fragile ceasefire.

A renewed round of strikes between the United States and Iran has caused a sharp drop in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. BBC data show a noticeable decline in ships, many of them oil and gas tankers, using the U.S.-backed route. The shipping company Maersk announced it would resume its Middle East to U.S. East Coast connection, but via the Suez Canal, suggesting a detour around the danger zone. Nervousness is returning to financial markets: investors had previously relied on the fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, but the new fighting exposes cracks in that calculation. The sources here mix Western and Turkish reporting, and a comprehensive picture of the military situation remains thin for now.

BBC NewsNew York TimesDaily Sabah

Forecast · Assessment
  • Most likely55%

    The ceasefire holds but stays fragile, ship traffic remains subdued and carriers keep diverting to longer routes, nudging freight and energy prices slightly higher.

  • Worst case20%

    The strikes escalate into a broader confrontation, the Strait of Hormuz becomes temporarily impassable and oil prices jump sharply.

  • Best case25%

    Diplomatic pressure quickly stabilizes the ceasefire, traffic returns to normal and markets calm down again.