Symbolic imageWFP forecasts 50 million more people in acute hunger as El Niño builds
The UN's World Food Programme warned on Wednesday that a rapidly developing El Niño could push about 50 million people into acute hunger before the end of 2027. It would be the strongest such system in at least 70 years.
What happened
- The forecast adds more than a fifth to the 225 million people already in acute food insecurity across the 45 countries WFP covers.
- Central and South America, the Caribbean and southern Africa are listed as likely worst affected in the analysis.
- South and south-east Asia are expected to see less rainfall than usual, hitting agriculture.
- WFP has budgeted at least $80m for early warning systems and anticipatory relief.
- During the 2015-16 El Niño, 60 to 100 million people faced acute food insecurity.
What could happen next
- WFP's climate service director expects southern Africa's biggest impact in the 2027-28 lean season, after the October to March growing season.
- Whether anticipatory relief blunts the impact compared with 2015-16 is untested, and remains WFP's stated hope.
- Data collection has been cut for lack of funding, and effects outside the 45 covered countries are unmeasured.
- Last year's unusually good harvest cushions farmers, against upward price pressure from the war in the Middle East.