Symbolic imageGlobal oil market tips into surplus as Gulf exports recover
The IEA says world oil supply exceeded demand in October for the first time since the Iran war began. Gulf exports are recovering faster than consumption.
The International Energy Agency said in Paris on Friday, 13 November, that global stocks rose by 52 million barrels in October. Gulf exports, excluding Oman, reached 18.4 million barrels a day despite continuing attacks on tankers, still 26 percent below prewar levels. The agency raised its supply outlook for the rest of the year, as higher output in the US, Canada, Brazil and Argentina partly offsets losses in the Middle East and Russia. It expects demand to rise again from around March 2027, held back for now by high fuel prices. The Financial Times reports that IEA analysts warn it will take months to rebuild stockpiles depleted by the conflict.
Diesel stays scarce
The IEA calls the tight supply of refined products, especially diesel, the market's biggest problem. Attacks on Russian energy infrastructure sharply limit Russian diesel exports, while Atlantic refineries, notably in the US, run at full capacity. The agency plans to release its emergency diesel reserves faster in the coming months.
US extends shipping waiver
Reuters reports that the US extended a shipping law waiver by 90 days to allow freer movement of oil and commodities. Bloomberg's headline says the waiver also covers fertilizer.