Oil tops $100 as Iran war and Hormuz/Red Sea disruption reroute crude

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The confrontation between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia has now left a measurable mark on physical oil flows: according to Kpler data cited by The National, Saudi Arabia has loaded no crude at all for export through the Bab al-Mandeb strait from its west coast since the rebels declared a maritime embargo on Saudi shipping and struck two tankers, with Asian cargoes moving instead through the Suez Canal, a route that adds weeks and cost and that earlier Kpler and LSEG figures put at 48 days rather than 19 on the Yanbu-to-Taiwan run. The Houthis' claim to have hit Aramco installations at Jizan and Yanbu, launched as retaliation for Saudi-led coalition strikes on Hodeidah, remains unconfirmed by either the Saudi government or Aramco, though Riyadh reported intercepting two ballistic missiles and issued emergency alerts in both cities. Rzeczpospolita records that the truce imposed on the Houthis after intensified bombing in spring 2025 has broken down. In the Gulf, the picture is less uniformly hostile: Iranian and Omani officials wrapped up two days of high-level talks in Tehran on safeguarding traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran described as productive and attributed to a halt in US air strikes, even as Revolutionary Guard vessels continued to stop ships in the waterway, according to Tehran Times and the South China Morning Post. A separate supply interruption has opened well away from the Middle East, with Al Jazeera reporting that Kazakh oil exports were halted after drone attacks, a spillover from the war between Russia and Ukraine that carries risks for both the Kazakh economy and energy markets. Prices have stopped climbing in one direction and started swinging. Crude slumped roughly 5% after Washington and Tehran paused their strikes, then spiked back toward $100 a barrel as escalation fears returned; gold rose as the pause curbed inflation risk, Asian equities and currencies firmed on softer US inflation data, and bond markets repriced war risk. Financial outlets read the pause as calming markets without removing the underlying supply risk in the Gulf or the Red Sea, and attention has shifted from shipping logistics toward monetary policy, with Bloomberg placing central banks in the spotlight. The structural responses set in motion earlier are unaffected by the lull: corporate planning has moved past rerouting cargo toward redesigning where goods are made and stored, exemplified by DP World's plan for an east-coast port that bypasses Hormuz altogether, and the new US duties of 10% to 12.5% on more than 60 economies remain in force, their durability rather than their level the open question given the court challenges to the statute behind them. Analysts continue to warn that the trade and energy shocks reinforce rather than offset each other.

The Strait of Hormuz, the corridor through which a large share of Gulf crude normally reaches world markets, has been disrupted since the outbreak of the US-Iran war. Saudi Arabia responded in February by shifting most of its exports away from the Gulf to Red Sea terminals such as Yanbu, making the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb strait its principal outlet to Asian buyers. Houthi attacks on shipping have now put that route in question as well, leaving the Suez Canal and the far longer voyage around Africa as the remaining options. The result is a two-chokepoint squeeze on the world's largest crude exporter, with longer voyages, higher fuel and transit costs and limited pipeline capacity feeding directly into oil prices and inflation expectations.