Narrative thread · 2 events

Iran and Energy Prices

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With the start of the Iran war in late February 2026 and the largely closed Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 20 percent of the world's oil trade normally passes, crude oil rose by around 40 US dollars per barrel; in the United States, gasoline prices climbed by around 30 percent by the end of March to about 4 US dollars per gallon. An Iranian attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility on 18 March reduced Qatar's liquefied gas capacity by around 17 percent and sent LNG spot prices in Asia up by more than 140 percent. The World Bank put the expected rise in energy prices in 2026 at around 24 percent and described it as the strongest surge since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Asia and the Middle East were particularly affected: in Malaysia and Pakistan, gasoline prices rose by more than 50 percent, diesel in Malaysia by more than 70 percent and in the United Arab Emirates by more than 85 percent. After the ceasefire in April and the June agreement, the situation eased somewhat, but remained fragile in view of the renewed escalation in July.

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Timeline in detail

Tuesday, 14 July 2026Economy

US inflation falls to 3.5 percent in June thanks to falling energy prices

US consumer prices rose by only 3.5 percent in June, curbed by cheaper energy and gasoline prices. Economists, however, warn of a renewed rise due to US-Iran tensions.

There is agreement on the figure: US inflation slowed to 3.5 percent in June, largely driven by falling energy and gasoline prices. The conservative Wall Street Journal frames it positively as relief for Americans at the pump. The Qatari broadcaster Al Jazeera shares the finding but emphasizes experts' warning that inflation could return after the renewed US-Iran tensions. The pro-market Handelsblatt reflects the mixed market reaction: Wall Street was uneven after the data, torn between inflation, corporate figures and the Iran war. The cooled June inflation is treated as fact; its durability is in dispute. The sources differ mainly in how heavily they weigh the geopolitical risks to price developments.

Wall Street JournalAl JazeeraHandelsblatt

Saturday, 4 July 2026GeopoliticsIran Begins Khamenei Mourning Ceremonies and Threatens Hormuz Fees

Iran Begins Khamenei Mourning Ceremonies and Threatens Hormuz Fees

In Tehran, the multi-day mourning ceremonies begin for Ayatollah Khamenei, killed on 28 February, with Iran expecting millions of participants. At the same time, Tehran announces that it will impose fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which the United States rejects. The suspended negotiations are set to resume on 11 July.

On 4 July 2026, the days-long state mourning ceremonies for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei began in Tehran. According to the reports, he was killed on 28 February on the first day of the US-Israeli war against Iran. Iranian authorities stated that they expected 15 to 20 million participants in Tehran over the coming days; according to the Times of Israel, the mourners also included representatives of Hamas and Hezbollah. In parallel, Iran’s ambassador to China declared that Tehran would definitely impose service fees on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, though friendly states would receive special treatment. The United States rejected this and insisted that any agreement must prohibit Iran from levying fees. US President Trump declared that the United States would win the war against Iran one way or another. The sourcing relies on live reports from CNN, CBS and the Times of Israel; the exact participant figures are official Iranian claims and are difficult to verify independently.

CNNThe Times of IsraelCBS News

Forecast · Assessment

Most likely55%
The large turnout of mourners strengthens the leadership, Tehran shows itself willing to compromise at the negotiating table, and a lasting agreement to open Hormuz draws closer.
Most likely20%
The large turnout of mourners strengthens the leadership, Tehran shows itself willing to compromise at the negotiating table, and a lasting agreement to open Hormuz draws closer.
Most likely25%
The large turnout of mourners strengthens the leadership, Tehran shows itself willing to compromise at the negotiating table, and a lasting agreement to open Hormuz draws closer.