Symbolic imageRubio meets China and Russia on the sidelines of the ASEAN forum
At a meeting of Southeast Asian foreign ministers, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with his Chinese counterpart about managing tensions ahead of a planned US visit by President Xi. He also intends to reexamine with his Russian counterpart the prospect of US mediation in the Ukraine war.
On the sidelines of the ASEAN security forum in Southeast Asia, US Secretary of State Rubio held several delicate talks. Al Jazeera (Qatar) reports that Rubio and his Chinese counterpart said the "major differences" would have to be worked through, also with a view to a planned visit by President Xi Jinping to the US. The news agency AP (US) emphasizes that in a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Rubio wants to revive the prospect of US help in ending the Ukraine war. The state-aligned Global Times (China), by contrast, foregrounds cooperation between China and the ASEAN states and blames "Philippine-provoked" tensions for friction. This juxtaposition shows the usual framing: Washington and Beijing both stress a willingness to talk but assign responsibility for tensions to the other side or to third parties. No concrete results became known at first. What can be noted is that senior diplomats remain in dialogue despite many lines of conflict.
- Most likely55%
The talks keep the dialogue open without a breakthrough; a Xi visit is prepared, and the Ukraine mediation remains tough going.
- Worst case20%
Tensions in the South China Sea or over Taiwan escalate and cause the rapprochement to fail.
- Best case25%
The contacts give rise to a concrete road map for summits and Ukraine negotiations.