Symbolic imageOPEC+ completes rollback of 2023 oil output cuts
Seven OPEC+ states agreed on Sunday to lift oil production by 188,000 barrels per day in September, the sixth monthly increase in a row. The step finishes unwinding the voluntary cuts the group agreed in 2023.
What happened
- Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman took the decision in a video conference.
- Russia's September quota rises by 62,000 bpd to 9.949 million, Saudi Arabia's by the same amount to 10.478 million.
- Iraq gains 26,000 bpd, Kuwait 16,000, Kazakhstan 10,000, Algeria 6,000, Oman 5,000.
- The package restores 1.65 million bpd cut in April 2023, when the UAE was still a member.
- The group's monitoring committee warned that attacks on energy infrastructure and on shipping routes increase market volatility.
The view from outside
Telesur (Venezuela) stresses how far the paper quotas sit above reality, citing an OPEC+ report under which Saudi Arabia pumped 6.84 million bpd in June against its new 10.47 million target, and dates the Middle East war to 28 February, calling it a US and Israeli campaign against Iran.
What could happen next
- Unclear when volumes can actually rise: Gulf exports stay limited while the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained.
- Rystad Energy expects a pause in the fourth quarter, before quota negotiations for 2027.
- Russian output runs near 9 million bpd against a 9.8 million target after Ukrainian drone strikes, per AFP.
- The seven states meet again on 6 September to review the market.
Saudi Arabia and Russia: Frame the increase as a collective commitment to market stability and want overproduced volumes compensated by the end of 2026.
Iraq: Presses for a 'fair share' and quotas aligned with its capacity, to raise oil revenue for its economy.
Also involved