Trump calls off Iran strike wave, citing outlines of a deal Death toll in Ceuta rises to 67 as EU convenes emergency meeting WHO says Congo's Ebola response is falling behind the outbreak Lithuania summons Russian envoy after Kyiv barrage damages embassy 112 bodies recovered from Gaza's Sabra district after two-week search Projectile hits LNG tanker at entrance to Strait of Hormuz Israeli strikes kill at least eight in Gaza as disarmament roadmap stalls Kuwait says Iranian drones struck government facility Washington and Silicon Valley split over cheap Chinese AI models Hungary shuts its only nuclear plant as Danube falls to record low Hamas says it has met its ceasefire obligations as UAE backs disarmament deal OpenAI widens probe after new agent containment breaches Oil stays elevated as Hormuz tanker traffic falters Wildfires and extreme heat grip southern Europe US embassies urge Americans to consider leaving the Middle East Japan ends rescue at quake-hit mall as heat compounds disaster Iran warns Gulf states and threatens retaliation over Hormuz Tehran condemns US-Saudi strike on militia positions in Iraq Israeli military says it killed Hezbollah fighters in south Lebanon US order pushes arms makers to drop Chinese rare earths China stages drills and issues new rules at Scarborough Shoal Analysis indicates US bomb killed three civilians on Qeshm Michigan reports cyberattacks on water systems after FBI warning Warnings of sharp food price rises as heat and war squeeze grain supplies Fighting flares in western Tigray as Ethiopia and TPLF trade blame EU calls emergency ministers' meeting on Ceuta as Sánchez attacks partners Japan and US act jointly to halt the yen's slide Israeli raids and settler attacks surge across the West Bank EU labelling rule for AI-generated content takes effect China tests JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile Bomb kills three at Moscow restaurant Rosatom vessel sinks in Black Sea after Ukrainian drone attack India-China trade resumes at Shipki La pass after six years Truck bomb at Cúcuta police station wounds at least 11 Sightseeing plane crashes near Peru's Nazca Lines, killing 13 AIDS conference in Rio centres on missing aid money Rubio says US will test prospects for resuming Ukraine talks New Zealand seals third Pacific defence pact in under four months Tech stocks tumble on spending worries US-backed democracy talks sideline Venezuela's opposition leader BDI warns of a 'China shock 2.0' hitting German industry Infantino under pressure after scrapping World Cup sell-off plan Tunisians protest as heatwave strains the power grid Analyst says China has a way to answer US sanctions bill China releases footage of Type 076 assault ship catapult test Attack in Indian-administered Kashmir kills one China says it will fight new US import ban Nicaragua reform extends presidential terms and curbs opposition US agents detain migrants at airports under new federal rule Warsh's silence leaves stock and bond traders braced Trump calls off Iran strike wave, citing outlines of a deal Death toll in Ceuta rises to 67 as EU convenes emergency meeting WHO says Congo's Ebola response is falling behind the outbreak Lithuania summons Russian envoy after Kyiv barrage damages embassy 112 bodies recovered from Gaza's Sabra district after two-week search Projectile hits LNG tanker at entrance to Strait of Hormuz Israeli strikes kill at least eight in Gaza as disarmament roadmap stalls Kuwait says Iranian drones struck government facility Washington and Silicon Valley split over cheap Chinese AI models Hungary shuts its only nuclear plant as Danube falls to record low Hamas says it has met its ceasefire obligations as UAE backs disarmament deal OpenAI widens probe after new agent containment breaches Oil stays elevated as Hormuz tanker traffic falters Wildfires and extreme heat grip southern Europe US embassies urge Americans to consider leaving the Middle East Japan ends rescue at quake-hit mall as heat compounds disaster Iran warns Gulf states and threatens retaliation over Hormuz Tehran condemns US-Saudi strike on militia positions in Iraq Israeli military says it killed Hezbollah fighters in south Lebanon US order pushes arms makers to drop Chinese rare earths China stages drills and issues new rules at Scarborough Shoal Analysis indicates US bomb killed three civilians on Qeshm Michigan reports cyberattacks on water systems after FBI warning Warnings of sharp food price rises as heat and war squeeze grain supplies Fighting flares in western Tigray as Ethiopia and TPLF trade blame EU calls emergency ministers' meeting on Ceuta as Sánchez attacks partners Japan and US act jointly to halt the yen's slide Israeli raids and settler attacks surge across the West Bank EU labelling rule for AI-generated content takes effect China tests JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile Bomb kills three at Moscow restaurant Rosatom vessel sinks in Black Sea after Ukrainian drone attack India-China trade resumes at Shipki La pass after six years Truck bomb at Cúcuta police station wounds at least 11 Sightseeing plane crashes near Peru's Nazca Lines, killing 13 AIDS conference in Rio centres on missing aid money Rubio says US will test prospects for resuming Ukraine talks New Zealand seals third Pacific defence pact in under four months Tech stocks tumble on spending worries US-backed democracy talks sideline Venezuela's opposition leader BDI warns of a 'China shock 2.0' hitting German industry Infantino under pressure after scrapping World Cup sell-off plan Tunisians protest as heatwave strains the power grid Analyst says China has a way to answer US sanctions bill China releases footage of Type 076 assault ship catapult test Attack in Indian-administered Kashmir kills one China says it will fight new US import ban Nicaragua reform extends presidential terms and curbs opposition US agents detain migrants at airports under new federal rule Warsh's silence leaves stock and bond traders braced

Symbolic image: Warnings of sharp food price rises as heat and war squeeze grain supplies

Symbolic image

Warnings of sharp food price rises as heat and war squeeze grain supplies

2 sources

Bloomberg reported on Saturday that armed conflicts and extreme weather could drive global food prices sharply higher. Heat and drought in Europe are cutting grain output.

What happened

Russia and Ukraine account for more than a quarter of world wheat supplies, according to Bloomberg.
The two also provide two-thirds of sunflower oil exports and a tenth of corn exports.
Supplies via the Black Sea have become difficult, Bloomberg says.
European heat, drought and forest fires could cause the largest grain production decline in decades.
The US and Israeli military operation against Iran has raised fuel and fertilizer prices.

The view from outside

Germany's Handelsblatt reports that Russia's grain lobby has warned Black Sea exports could stop altogether, going further than the shipping difficulties described by Bloomberg. TASS, relaying the Bloomberg report, lists El Niño and warmer Pacific surface water as a further risk to key rice producers and exporters.

What could happen next

Neither report quantifies how much Black Sea grain traffic is currently affected, or for how long.
The size of Europe's harvest shortfall is not yet measured; estimates rest on the ongoing heat and fires.
Fertilizer and fuel costs remain tied to the course of the operation against Iran.
El Niño's effect on rice exporters is still a projection, not a recorded loss.