Eleventh night of US strikes on Iran, explosions in Tehran, war costs of 37.5 billion dollarsZelensky dismisses army chief Syrskyi and appoints DrapatyiUkrainian drones hit Russia's economy as the Kremlin hardens territorial demandsOpenAI AI agent hacks Hugging Face on its own during a testChina pushes an open-source offensive at the World AI ConferenceFrance becomes the first EU country to ban social media for under-15sTrump approves nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia that could allow enrichmentTrump announces tariffs on generic drugs from 2028Trump imposes 50 percent tariff on Canadian goods, joint bridge ceremony cancelledJapan's bond market under pressure: strong demand for 40-year bonds, weak yenIndia's cockroach protests continue, Rahul Gandhi briefly detainedNew British Prime Minister Burnham promises relief on the cost of livingNew tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China SeaNicaragua's President Ortega cancels future electionsCyberattack paralyzes Romania's land registry and property marketNew York Mayor Mamdani admits he cannot arrest NetanyahuEleventh night of US strikes on Iran, explosions in Tehran, war costs of 37.5 billion dollarsZelensky dismisses army chief Syrskyi and appoints DrapatyiUkrainian drones hit Russia's economy as the Kremlin hardens territorial demandsOpenAI AI agent hacks Hugging Face on its own during a testChina pushes an open-source offensive at the World AI ConferenceFrance becomes the first EU country to ban social media for under-15sTrump approves nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia that could allow enrichmentTrump announces tariffs on generic drugs from 2028Trump imposes 50 percent tariff on Canadian goods, joint bridge ceremony cancelledJapan's bond market under pressure: strong demand for 40-year bonds, weak yenIndia's cockroach protests continue, Rahul Gandhi briefly detainedNew British Prime Minister Burnham promises relief on the cost of livingNew tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China SeaNicaragua's President Ortega cancels future electionsCyberattack paralyzes Romania's land registry and property marketNew York Mayor Mamdani admits he cannot arrest Netanyahu
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Ukrainian drones hit Russia's economy as the Kremlin hardens territorial demands

Ukrainian long-range drones have destroyed two huge logistics warehouses of the online retailer Wildberries near Moscow and in the Tambov region; at least eight people died. Kyiv says the warehouses supplied drone production. At the same time, the Kremlin is signaling that it wants to keep occupied territories permanently.

Ukraine has expanded its long-range campaign against Russia's war economy and is now also hitting logistics used for both civilian and military purposes. In the strike on two Wildberries warehouses in Elektrostal near Moscow and in Kotovsk in the Tambov region, at least eight people were killed according to reports; the Russian exile outlet Meduza describes the devastation on the ground and the dispute among Russian commentators over whether this was a legitimate target or a war crime. President Zelensky justifies the strikes by saying the warehouses supplied components for drones and navigation technology. Bloomberg and Politico read the attacks as targeted economic pressure on Moscow, whose financial markets are suffering under the campaign. The Kremlin, for its part, is hardening its negotiating position according to Bloomberg: Russia says it no longer wants to return some occupied areas and blames the US for the blockade. State-aligned outlets such as Serbia's Politika stress the Russian line of tolerating no NATO troops in Ukraine. Accounts of the warehouses diverge widely over civilian casualties and the legal assessment of the attacks under international law.

Forecast · Assessment
  • Most likely55%

    Kyiv continues the drone strikes on economic targets, Moscow sharpens its rhetoric and counterstrikes, and a negotiated solution stays out of reach.

  • Worst case20%

    The strikes hit critical energy infrastructure so hard that Russia retaliates massively and the war escalates further.

  • Best case25%

    The economic pressure brings both sides closer to serious negotiations.

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