Twelfth night of attacks in the Iran war: first US soldiers killed, Tehran threatens "an eye for an eye"Houthis attack two Saudi oil tankers in the Red SeaUS and Saudi Arabia sign civilian nuclear agreementReformer Drapatyi becomes commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armyUkraine's drones strike Russia's ports and commercial warehouses, Kyiv appeals to the UN Security CouncilUS House approves record defense budget of over a trillion dollarsMerz makes Thorsten Frei leader of the CDU/CSU parliamentary groupSevere wildfires in southern Europe: tens of thousands fleeing in Spain and FranceRubio meets China and Russia on the sidelines of the ASEAN forumUS court sets trial of Venezuela's ex-president Maduro for June 2027Tesla earns less despite rising salesEU approves Paramount's multibillion-dollar takeover of Warner Bros. subject to conditionsGreece blocks new EU sanctions package against RussiaAlphabet quadruples profit and plans AI investments of up to 200 billion dollarsAutonomous OpenAI AI hack alarms Congress and the digital ministryAlphabet's AI billions drive chip stocks, Intel and AMD secure China dealsTwelfth night of attacks in the Iran war: first US soldiers killed, Tehran threatens "an eye for an eye"Houthis attack two Saudi oil tankers in the Red SeaUS and Saudi Arabia sign civilian nuclear agreementReformer Drapatyi becomes commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armyUkraine's drones strike Russia's ports and commercial warehouses, Kyiv appeals to the UN Security CouncilUS House approves record defense budget of over a trillion dollarsMerz makes Thorsten Frei leader of the CDU/CSU parliamentary groupSevere wildfires in southern Europe: tens of thousands fleeing in Spain and FranceRubio meets China and Russia on the sidelines of the ASEAN forumUS court sets trial of Venezuela's ex-president Maduro for June 2027Tesla earns less despite rising salesEU approves Paramount's multibillion-dollar takeover of Warner Bros. subject to conditionsGreece blocks new EU sanctions package against RussiaAlphabet quadruples profit and plans AI investments of up to 200 billion dollarsAutonomous OpenAI AI hack alarms Congress and the digital ministryAlphabet's AI billions drive chip stocks, Intel and AMD secure China deals
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Twelfth night of attacks in the Iran war: first US soldiers killed, Tehran threatens "an eye for an eye"

The US military has struck Iran for the twelfth night in a row; following Iranian counterstrikes, four US soldiers have died for the first time, with around a hundred wounded since the escalation began. Foreign Minister Araghchi is promising retaliation on the principle of "an eye for an eye," while Trump is threatening strikes against bridges and power plants. The World Bank warns of a global economic slump.

Twelve nights after the latest escalation began, the US military is continuing its attacks on Iranian targets and moving additional forces and medics into the region. For the first time, several sources confirm the deaths of US soldiers: Al Jazeera (Qatar) and US media report four killed and around a hundred wounded since the fighting began, with the seriously injured flown to Germany for treatment. Iranian and state-aligned sources such as Daily Sabah (Turkey) stress the warning from Foreign Minister Araghchi that any attack on civilian infrastructure will be answered on the principle of "an eye for an eye," while the German and US press (Zeit, FAZ) highlight Trump's threat to destroy a bridge or a power plant for every attack on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Conservative and liberal papers in the West increasingly paint the picture of a stalemated air war with no clear objective: Politico sees Trump's air war "reaching its limits," while Die Welt speaks of remarkable admissions after the soldiers' deaths. Unconfirmed is the question, circulated above all in Serbian and Kosovar media, of possible Russian help with Iranian attacks on CIA facilities, which US agencies are examining according to Reuters. What the camps agree on counts as fact: the attacks continue, there are dead on both sides, and the World Bank warns of severe consequences for the global economy.

Forecast · Assessment
  • Most likely55%

    The US continues the nightly attacks without deploying ground troops; the war drags on, keeps claiming victims and keeps oil prices and Trump's domestic politics under pressure.

  • Worst case20%

    A permanent closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a major attack widens the war regionally and sends oil prices sharply higher.

  • Best case25%

    Mediation leads to a ceasefire and a decline in the attacks.

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